What's priced into Caterpillar Inc.?
What do you have to believe to make money in Caterpillar Inc. at $817? The stock trades at 35.0x trailing earnings and the Street expects about 20% growth a year. The question is where do we go from here?
Growth down the side, exit multiple across the top, your five-year annualized return in each cell.
The expectations grid · 5-year annualized return
| EPS growth ↓ · Exit multiple → | 17.5x −50% | 26.3x −25% | 35.0x today | 43.8x +25% | 17.3x 5y median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% (decline) | −21% | −15% | −10% | −6% | −22% |
| 0% (no growth) | −13% | −6% | +0% | +5% | −13% |
| 10% (half) | −4% | +4% | +10% | +15% | −5% |
| 20% (Street consensus) | +4% | +13% | +20% | +25% | +4% |
| 24% (beat) | +8% | +17% | +24% | +30% | +8% |
| 29% (big beat) | +13% | +22% | +29% | +35% | +12% |
“Caterpillar's operating income went minus 27%, minus 18%, minus 3%, minus 9%, plus 20%, plus 50% across six quarters.”
From our CAT write-up.
Read the CAT write-up →Method. Trailing diluted EPS of $23.34 (price $817.00 ÷ 35.0x trailing P/E; data from Financial Modeling Prep, August 28, 2026). Exit multiples are anchored to the stock itself: 50% and 25% below today's multiple, today's, 25% above, and its own five-fiscal-year median of 17.3x. Growth rows are anchored to the Street’s forward consensus: a decline at half the center rate, zero, half, the center, 25% above, and 50% above. Cell shading scales with the return, green positive, red negative. Each cell: EPS compounds at the row's rate for five years, the stock is valued at the column's multiple in year five, and the result is the annualized return against today's price. Dividends and buybacks excluded. An illustrative surface, not a forecast and not a call.