What's priced into Circle Internet Group?
What do you have to believe to make money in Circle Internet Group at $96.53? The stock trades at 51.1x trailing earnings and the Street expects about 4% growth a year. The question is where do we go from here?
Growth down the side, exit multiple across the top, your five-year annualized return in each cell.
5-year annualized return · growth vs exit multiple
| EPS growth ↓ · Exit multiple → | 25.5x −50% | 38.3x −25% | 51.1x today | 63.8x +25% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| −2% (decline) | −15% | −8% | −2% | +2% |
| 0% (no growth) | −13% | −6% | +0% | +5% |
| 2% (half) | −11% | −4% | +2% | +7% |
| 4% (Street consensus) | −9% | −2% | +4% | +9% |
| 5% (beat) | −8% | −1% | +5% | +10% |
| 6% (big beat) | −7% | +0% | +6% | +11% |
“The bet you're really making is that USDC, the digital dollar Circle runs, keeps growing, so more and more dollars sit in Circle's care. You're betting the interest on those dollars stays high, because reserve income, interest earned on the Treasury bills backing the coin, is roughly 95% of total revenue, and the Federal Reserve is now cutting rates.”
From our CRCL write-up.
Read the CRCL write-up →Method. Trailing diluted EPS of $1.89 (price $96.53 ÷ 51.1x trailing P/E; data from Financial Modeling Prep, September 8, 2026). Exit multiples are anchored to the stock itself: 50% and 25% below today's multiple, today's, 25% above. Growth rows are anchored to the Street’s forward consensus: a decline at half the center rate, zero, half, the center, 25% above, and 50% above. Cell shading scales with the return, green positive, red negative. Each cell: EPS compounds at the row's rate for five years, the stock is valued at the column's multiple in year five, and the result is the annualized return against today's price. Dividends and buybacks excluded. An illustrative surface, not a forecast and not a call.