What's priced into Illumina, Inc.?
What do you have to believe to make money in Illumina, Inc. at $212? The stock trades at 39.2x trailing earnings and the Street expects about 13% growth a year. The question is where do we go from here?
Growth down the side, exit multiple across the top, your five-year annualized return in each cell.
5-year annualized return · growth vs exit multiple
| EPS growth ↓ · Exit multiple → | 19.6x −50% | 29.4x −25% | 39.2x today | 49.0x +25% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| −7% (decline) | −19% | −12% | −7% | −2% |
| 0% (no growth) | −13% | −6% | +0% | +5% |
| 7% (half) | −7% | +1% | +7% | +12% |
| 13% (Street consensus) | −1% | +7% | +13% | +19% |
| 17% (beat) | +2% | +10% | +17% | +22% |
| 20% (big beat) | +5% | +13% | +20% | +26% |
“The bet you're really making is that the world keeps reading more DNA every year, and that the labs doing it keep buying Illumina's machines and the chemistry kits those machines burn through on every run. Underneath that, you're betting the newest machine, the NovaSeq X, pulls enough labs onto its kits to grow again after four flat years, even with China now off-limits.”
From our ILMN write-up.
Read the ILMN write-up →Method. Trailing diluted EPS of $5.41 (price $212.08 ÷ 39.2x trailing P/E; data from Financial Modeling Prep, September 8, 2026). Exit multiples are anchored to the stock itself: 50% and 25% below today's multiple, today's, 25% above. Growth rows are anchored to the Street’s forward consensus: a decline at half the center rate, zero, half, the center, 25% above, and 50% above. Cell shading scales with the return, green positive, red negative. Each cell: EPS compounds at the row's rate for five years, the stock is valued at the column's multiple in year five, and the result is the annualized return against today's price. Dividends and buybacks excluded. An illustrative surface, not a forecast and not a call.