What's priced into Nokia Oyj?
What do you have to believe to make money in Nokia Oyj at $10.74? The stock trades at 72.4x trailing earnings and the Street expects about 43% growth a year. The question is where do we go from here?
Growth down the side, exit multiple across the top, your five-year annualized return in each cell.
5-year annualized return · growth vs exit multiple
| EPS growth ↓ · Exit multiple → | 36.2x −50% | 54.3x −25% | 72.4x today | 90.5x +25% | 18.9x 5y median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −22% (decline) | −32% | −26% | −22% | −18% | −40% |
| 0% (no growth) | −13% | −6% | +0% | +5% | −24% |
| 22% (half) | +6% | +15% | +22% | +27% | −7% |
| 43% (Street consensus) | +25% | +35% | +43% | +50% | +10% |
| 54% (beat) | +34% | +46% | +54% | +61% | +18% |
| 65% (big beat) | +44% | +56% | +65% | +73% | +26% |
“The bet you're really making is that Nokia's newer gear, the optical and internet-routing boxes that wire AI data centers together, grows fast enough to outrun its old, shrinking cell-tower radio business. You are also betting the money it collects from patents, which nearly every phone maker on earth pays it, keeps flowing, and that after a decade of cutting costs the cutting finally stops.”
From our NOK write-up.
Read the NOK write-up →Method. Trailing diluted EPS of $0.15 (price $10.74 ÷ 72.4x trailing P/E; data from Financial Modeling Prep, September 8, 2026). Exit multiples are anchored to the stock itself: 50% and 25% below today's multiple, today's, 25% above, and its own five-fiscal-year median of 18.9x. Growth rows are anchored to the Street’s forward consensus: a decline at half the center rate, zero, half, the center, 25% above, and 50% above. Cell shading scales with the return, green positive, red negative. Each cell: EPS compounds at the row's rate for five years, the stock is valued at the column's multiple in year five, and the result is the annualized return against today's price. Dividends and buybacks excluded. An illustrative surface, not a forecast and not a call.