What's priced into Super Micro Computer, Inc.?
What do you have to believe to make money in Super Micro Computer, Inc. at $38.46? The stock trades at 10.5x trailing earnings and the Street expects about 18% growth a year. The question is where do we go from here?
Growth down the side, exit multiple across the top, your five-year annualized return in each cell.
The expectations grid · 5-year annualized return
| EPS growth ↓ · Exit multiple → | 5.3x −50% | 7.9x −25% | 10.5x today | 13.2x +25% | 11.5x 5y median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −9% (decline) | −21% | −14% | −9% | −5% | −7% |
| 0% (no growth) | −13% | −6% | +0% | +5% | +2% |
| 9% (half) | −5% | +3% | +9% | +14% | +11% |
| 18% (Street consensus) | +3% | +11% | +18% | +23% | +20% |
| 23% (beat) | +7% | +16% | +23% | +28% | +25% |
| 27% (big beat) | +11% | +20% | +27% | +33% | +29% |
“Super Micro's revenue more than doubled to $12.68B in a single quarter and its gross margin fell from 11.8% to 6.3% in the same three months.”
From our SMCI write-up.
Read the SMCI write-up →Method. Trailing diluted EPS of $3.65 (price $38.46 ÷ 10.5x trailing P/E; data from Financial Modeling Prep, August 28, 2026). Exit multiples are anchored to the stock itself: 50% and 25% below today's multiple, today's, 25% above, and its own five-fiscal-year median of 11.5x. Growth rows are anchored to the Street’s forward consensus: a decline at half the center rate, zero, half, the center, 25% above, and 50% above. Cell shading scales with the return, green positive, red negative. Each cell: EPS compounds at the row's rate for five years, the stock is valued at the column's multiple in year five, and the result is the annualized return against today's price. Dividends and buybacks excluded. An illustrative surface, not a forecast and not a call.