What's priced into Twilio Inc.?
What do you have to believe to make money in Twilio Inc. at $238? The stock trades at 31.6x trailing earnings and the Street expects about 3% growth a year. The question is where do we go from here?
Growth down the side, exit multiple across the top, your five-year annualized return in each cell.
The expectations grid · 5-year annualized return
| EPS growth ↓ · Exit multiple → | 15.8x −50% | 23.7x −25% | 31.6x today | 39.5x +25% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| −2% (decline) | −14% | −7% | −2% | +3% |
| 0% (no growth) | −13% | −6% | +0% | +5% |
| 2% (half) | −11% | −4% | +2% | +6% |
| 3% (Street consensus) | −10% | −2% | +3% | +8% |
| 4% (beat) | −9% | −2% | +4% | +9% |
| 5% (big beat) | −9% | −1% | +5% | +10% |
“Twilio is the communications-API platform that completed a turnaround from cash-burning hypergrowth into a profitable, free-cash-flow-generative business, and is now growing high-teens again on an AI customer-engagement cycle.”
From our TWLO write-up.
Read the TWLO write-up →Method. Trailing diluted EPS of $7.52 (price $237.78 ÷ 31.6x trailing P/E; data from Financial Modeling Prep, August 29, 2026). Exit multiples are anchored to the stock itself: 50% and 25% below today's multiple, today's, 25% above. Growth rows are anchored to the Street’s forward consensus: a decline at half the center rate, zero, half, the center, 25% above, and 50% above. Cell shading scales with the return, green positive, red negative. Each cell: EPS compounds at the row's rate for five years, the stock is valued at the column's multiple in year five, and the result is the annualized return against today's price. Dividends and buybacks excluded. An illustrative surface, not a forecast and not a call.