What's priced into Upstart Holdings, Inc.?
What do you have to believe to make money in Upstart Holdings, Inc. at $29.08? The stock trades at 46.8x trailing earnings and the Street expects about 69% growth a year. The question is where do we go from here?
Growth down the side, exit multiple across the top, your five-year annualized return in each cell.
The expectations grid · 5-year annualized return
| EPS growth ↓ · Exit multiple → | 23.4x −50% | 35.1x −25% | 46.8x today | 58.5x +25% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| −35% (decline) | −43% | −38% | −35% | −32% |
| 0% (no growth) | −13% | −6% | +0% | +5% |
| 35% (half) | +17% | +27% | +35% | +41% |
| 69% (Street consensus) | +47% | +60% | +69% | +77% |
| 87% (beat) | +63% | +76% | +87% | +95% |
| 104% (big beat) | +78% | +93% | +104% | +113% |
“71 while its loan volume grew 61% year on year, which is the whole puzzle: the business is originating more than ever, yet the stock trades where it does because the profit is non-GAAP, back-half-loaded, and funded by whoever is willing to buy the loans this quarter.”
From our UPST write-up.
Read the UPST write-up →Method. Trailing diluted EPS of $0.62 (price $29.08 ÷ 46.8x trailing P/E; data from Financial Modeling Prep, August 29, 2026). Exit multiples are anchored to the stock itself: 50% and 25% below today's multiple, today's, 25% above. Growth rows are anchored to the Street’s forward consensus: a decline at half the center rate, zero, half, the center, 25% above, and 50% above. Cell shading scales with the return, green positive, red negative. Each cell: EPS compounds at the row's rate for five years, the stock is valued at the column's multiple in year five, and the result is the annualized return against today's price. Dividends and buybacks excluded. An illustrative surface, not a forecast and not a call.