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Back of Napkin

The Boeing Company BA

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Boeing's share count has risen 27.8% in under two years, from 619 million to 791 million.

The recovery is real, the backlog is a record $715.3B, and existing shareholders have paid for both.

BA · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$126$163$200$237$274 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Boeing builds commercial aeroplanes, mostly 737s and 787s, sells defence equipment to the United States and allied governments on fixed-price and cost-plus contracts, and services the installed fleet. It is one of two companies in the world that can build a large commercial jet.

The last several years have been about manufacturing quality, regulatory limits on production rates, and a balance sheet that nearly failed. Credit ratings sit one notch above speculative grade at all three agencies, with Fitch moving its outlook to positive in June. What has changed is that deliveries are rising again.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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