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Wingstop Inc. WINGThey pay Michael Skipworth to grow adjusted profit and to open new restaurants, with nothing in the plan tied to the sales of the restaurants already open, which means he will keep the development machine at full speed through a demand slump, because franchisees fund the buildings and every opening pays the scoreboard twice. Proxy Report Wingstop Inc. WINGWingstop's franchise machine is still opening a restaurant nearly every day while the customers inside its existing restaurants quietly thin out. Moat Dive PJT Partners Inc. PJTPJT Partners grew a record second quarter 20% with all three of its engines, strategic advisory, private capital, and restructuring, rising at once, a combination the model was explicitly designed to produce. Back of Napkin Lazard Inc LAZLazard's asset-management arm just had its best half of inflows in roughly twenty years while its advisory arm shrank 9%, and the chief executive sold 125,000 shares two days ago. Back of Napkin Evercore Inc. EVREvercore's first half ran 56% ahead of last year, a pace no advisory firm sustains, and the stock has already given back a quarter from its high while the records were still printing. Back of Napkin Seagate Technology Holdings plc STXTwo years ago Seagate lost $2.56 a share; the fiscal year just closed earned $13.90, the gross margin hit 52%, and the stock has quintupled to a $190B market cap on hard drives. Back of Napkin Ares Management Corporation ARESAres raised a record $36.4B in a single quarter, sits on a record $170B of dry powder, and the share count that funds all this growth has risen 18% in two years. Back of Napkin Piper Sandler Companies PIPRPiper Sandler just printed the best first half in its history, advisory revenue up 34% to a record, and the stock sits 22% below its February high anyway. Back of Napkin Moelis & Company MCThree years ago Moelis lost money for a full year; last quarter it set a Q2 revenue record, and that round trip is the entire risk profile of the stock in one sentence. Back of Napkin Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. OPYOppenheimer earns $13 a share, carries $94 of book value, and the family that controls it through 99,665 unlisted voting shares just watched the stock nearly double in a year to $116. Back of Napkin StoneX Group Inc. SNEXStoneX just grew quarterly earnings 102% after swallowing R.J. O'Brien, the largest non-bank futures broker, and five of its senior officers spent July and August exercising decade-old options and selling the stock. Back of Napkin Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. BAMBrookfield Asset Management raised a record $77B in one quarter, a single $40B insurance mandate inside it, and the stock costs 28 times this year's consensus, the richest multiple among the big alternative managers. Back of Napkin Blue Owl Capital Inc. OWLBlue Owl's fee growth has been cut in half in eighteen months, from 24% to 8%, and the market has answered by cutting the stock 39% and leaving a 7.8% dividend yield on the table. Back of Napkin Salesforce, Inc. CRMSalesforce just reported its first accelerating quarter in three years, raised the full-year guide, and the stock jumped about 10% overnight, and even after the jump it costs roughly 13 times trailing free cash flow. Back of Napkin Vertiv Holdings Co VRTVertiv's deferred revenue doubled to $3.6B in six months, customers paying in advance for power and cooling gear they cannot get elsewhere fast enough, and the company just raised every number in its full-year guide. Back of Napkin KKR & Co. Inc. KKRIn February, KKR's two co-chief executives each spent roughly $17M of their own cash buying stock in the open market near $100, and six months later the firm printed record fee earnings, up 37%, with the shares still 29% below their old high. Back of Napkin Figma, Inc. FIGFigma has accelerated revenue growth three quarters running, 48% in the latest, and the stock has fallen 63% from its post-IPO high anyway, because the sellers are the people who built it. Back of Napkin Raymond James Financial, Inc. RJFRaymond James is the one bank in this week's advisory sweep that is not really a bank on a deal cycle: 72% of its revenue is fees on $1.92 trillion of client assets that mostly sit still and compound. Back of Napkin Spotify Technology S.A. SPOTThe argument over Spotify is no longer whether it can make money, it made a record 33.4% gross margin and €655M of quarterly operating profit, but whether a business now growing by raising prices on 300 million subscribers can keep doing it. Back of Napkin Houlihan Lokey, Inc. HLIWhile every other advisory bank was printing records this quarter, Houlihan Lokey's revenue fell 16%, and the stock has been cut 39% from its high for being the one name that zigged. Back of Napkin Stifel Financial Corp SFStifel just reported the best second quarter in its history, and it did so with 66% of segment revenue coming from wealth management, not the deal desk everyone watches. Back of Napkin Jefferies Financial Group Inc. JEFJapan's SMBC bought over 12 million Jefferies shares in the open market this spring and summer, roughly $650M at $48 to $55, while the stock sat 25% below its high. Back of Napkin ServiceNow, Inc. NOWServiceNow grew subscriptions 24% and beat every number it guided last quarter, and the stock still sits 35% below its high because GAAP earnings are a third of the adjusted ones. Back of Napkin GE Vernova Inc. GEVGE Vernova booked $24.2B of orders in a quarter, orders up 88%, against $11.1B of revenue, and its gas-turbine production is effectively sold out into the next decade. Back of Napkin Blackstone Inc. BXBlackstone runs $1.35 trillion and just grew distributable profit 26% in a quarter, yet its base management fees, the annuity everything else stands on, grew 4.5%. Back of Napkin DoorDash, Inc. DASHDoorDash grew revenue 36% last quarter and its profit fell 30%, and the market cap is $103B against $2.13 of trailing earnings per share. Back of Napkin Intuit Inc. INTUIntuit just guided its small-business half to grow 13% to 14% and its TurboTax half to grow 2% to 3%, and the stock is priced at 11 times free cash flow as though both halves were the tax half. Back of Napkin SharkNinja, Inc. SNSharkNinja's growth just reaccelerated to 22%, its fastest quarter since 2024, and the stock has responded by doubling off its April low to 38 times trailing earnings. Back of Napkin ClearPoint Neuro, Inc. CLPTClearPoint Neuro sells $42.3M of trailing revenue for about twelve times sales while losing more each quarter than the quarter before. Back of Napkin Intuit Inc. INTUFewer Americans have filed with TurboTax in each of the last three tax seasons, and Intuit has collected more money from them every time. Moat Dive AutoZone, Inc. AZOAutoZone's operating income fell in two consecutive quarters and then grew 6.6%, while revenue growth sat perfectly still at roughly 8% throughout. Back of Napkin WEX Inc. WEXWEX's fleet payment transactions have been flat or falling for six consecutive quarters, from 134.5 million to 139.3 million with four declines in between. Moat Dive The Boeing Company BABoeing's share count has risen 27.8% in under two years, from 619 million to 791 million. Back of Napkin Western Digital Corporation WDCWestern Digital's gross margin rose in six consecutive quarters, from 37.7% to 50.2%, with no reversal. Moat Dive Western Digital Corporation WDCWestern Digital's gross margin went from 28.1% to 48.9% in two years, on hard disk drives, a product everyone assumed was dying. Back of Napkin BayFirst Financial Corp. BAFNBayFirst restated its 2024, 2025 and first-quarter 2026 accounts in July, then reported a $32.7M loss on a bank with a $31.3M market value. Back of Napkin Western Alliance Bancorporation WALWestern Alliance charged off $208.5M of loans in the March quarter, and two named credits were $152.5M of it. Back of Napkin Vistra Corp. VSTVistra has signed twenty-year contracts to sell 3,809 megawatts of nuclear power to Amazon and Meta. Back of Napkin Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. BBWYou are paying about $490M, roughly ten times earnings, for a mall retailer that sells children a stuffed animal they build themselves, and whose sales just went from growing 12% to shrinking. Back of Napkin BayCom Corp BCMLYou are paying about $330M for a California business bank that earns a third less on its book than the banks next door, and the June quarter it just reported was a loss. Back of Napkin Verisk Analytics, Inc. VRSKEvery property insurer in America hands Verisk its claims and premium data, and Verisk sells the pooled result back to all of them. Moat Dive Valero Energy Corporation VLOValero closed the Benicia refinery in April, a year after writing down $1.13B on it and Wilmington, and then earned $12.62 a share in the following quarter. Back of Napkin Visa Inc. VA shop in Lisbon takes a card issued by a bank in Ohio without either party having agreed to anything, checked anything, or trusting anyone. Moat Dive Visa Inc. VVisa's operating expenses grew 19% last quarter against revenue of 14%, and marketing alone grew 54%. Back of Napkin UWM Holdings Corporation UWMCUWM lost $80.6M last quarter because interest rates moved against $603.2M of hedges it had just put on. Back of Napkin UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNHUnitedHealth's operating income collapsed to $380M in the December quarter, from $5.15B a year earlier, and has since recovered to $7.99B. Back of Napkin Bill.com Holdings, Inc. BILLBILL's customer count peaked at 498,500 in December and has fallen every quarter since, to 479,300. Moat Dive The Buckle, Inc. BKEBuckle's operating income rose $16.0M last quarter and $19.1M of it was a lawsuit settlement. Back of Napkin Uber Technologies, Inc. UBERUber's mobility take rate held between 29.9% and 30.7% for five straight quarters and then broke to 25.4%. Moat Dive Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMYBristol Myers now calls $7.6B of its $13.0B quarterly revenue the Growth Portfolio, and that half grew 15% last quarter. Back of Napkin Uber Technologies, Inc. UBERUber's take rate on rides fell from 30.7% to 25.4% in four quarters, which on $29.0B of quarterly mobility bookings is roughly $1.5B of revenue a quarter. Back of Napkin Box, Inc. BOXBox's net retention rate has risen for six consecutive quarters, from 102% to 105%. Back of Napkin Twilio Inc. TWLOTwilio's net expansion rate has risen in every one of the last seven quarters, from 106% to 116%. Moat Dive Dutch Bros Inc. BROSRevenue growth accelerated to 32.5% last quarter. The number of customers walking up to the window grew 1.7%, down from 3.7% a year ago. Back of Napkin Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV BUDAnheuser-Busch InBev sold 2.3% less beer in 2025 and made more money, because revenue per hectolitre rose 4.4%. Moat Dive Tradeweb Markets Inc. TWIn June 2026 Tradeweb passed MarketAxess in electronic corporate bond share for the first time since 2012. Moat Dive Citigroup Inc. CCitigroup's return on tangible common equity went from 8.7% to 13.0% in a year, and the shares are priced at 1.31 times tangible book. Back of Napkin Citigroup Inc. CCitigroup's share of deposits that pay no interest fell in five of the last six quarters, from 15.6% to 13.8%. Moat Dive The Trade Desk, Inc. TTDThe Trade Desk grew revenue 3.0% last quarter, down from 25.4% five quarters earlier, and the shares have fallen 76% to $13.27. Back of Napkin Trane Technologies plc TTTrane bought a data centre cooling company in February and the rest of the market has not repriced the shares for it. Back of Napkin Pathward Financial, Inc. CASHPathward's nonperforming assets went from $101.7M to $277.5M in nine months, from 1.42% of the balance sheet to 3.79%. Back of Napkin Casey's General Stores, Inc. CASYCasey's earns more selling pizza than gasoline, and last quarter it made 46.9 cents on every gallon, the best fuel margin in its recorded history. Back of Napkin Tesla, Inc. TSLATesla's regulatory credit revenue collapsed from $595M a quarter to $146M after a change in United States law removed the programmes that created it. Back of Napkin Caterpillar Inc. CATCaterpillar's operating income went minus 27%, minus 18%, minus 3%, minus 9%, plus 20%, plus 50% across six quarters. Back of Napkin CAVA Group, Inc. CAVACAVA's same-restaurant sales went from 2.1% to 9.0% in a year, which is the rarest thing in restaurants: a comp that accelerates while the store count grows 20%. Back of Napkin TransUnion TRUTransUnion holds one of three files on essentially every credit-active American, which is an asset nobody can rebuild. Moat Dive Cboe Global Markets, Inc. CBOECboe's share of United States equities fell in nine of the last ten quarters, from 12.8% to 9.4%. Moat Dive Toast, Inc. TOSTToast added a record 9,500 restaurant locations last quarter and its take rate has not moved from about 2.6% in six quarters. Moat Dive CDW Corporation CDWCDW's gross margin rose from 19.7% to 21.8% in one year and has sat between 21.7% and 21.9% ever since. Moat Dive Celsius Holdings, Inc. CELHAlani Nu is about to pass CELSIUS as the company's biggest brand, and CELSIUS is the one the company is named after. Back of Napkin Target Corporation TGTTarget's comparable sales went from -3.8% to +5.6% in a year, traffic turned positive, and the stock doubled from $83.44 to $169.90. Back of Napkin Teledyne Technologies Incorporated TDYTeledyne carries $8.66B of goodwill against $10.92B of equity, which is what thirty years of buying small companies looks like on a balance sheet. Back of Napkin Charter Communications, Inc. CHTRSix days ago Charter closed two transformational deals, and the units it issued to pay for one of them were priced off a reference of $353.64. Back of Napkin StoneCo Ltd. STNEStoneCo's loans more than ninety days overdue went from 3.61% of its credit book to 8.60% in six quarters. Moat Dive Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINFCincinnati Financial posted its best earnings quarter on record and lost money underwriting insurance at the same time. Back of Napkin SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. SSNCA hedge fund that outsources its books to SS&C is not buying software, it is handing over the function, and taking it back means rehiring the department. Moat Dive Celestica Inc. CLSCelestica's revenue grew 62% last quarter and three customers accounted for 63% of it. Back of Napkin S&P Global Inc. SPGIS&P Global handed its automotive division to shareholders on July 1 and kept the four businesses where the moats are. Moat Dive CME Group Inc. CMECME's contract volume fell 1% last quarter and the fee it earns on each contract fell from 69.0 cents to 67.8. Back of Napkin CME Group Inc. CMEA bank with a rates position at CME cannot move it to a competitor without closing it first, and closing it costs the margin efficiency that made the position worth holding. Moat Dive S&P Global Inc. SPGIOn July 1 S&P Global handed shareholders the Mobility division and kept everything else. Back of Napkin Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMGChipotle's customer traffic was negative for four straight quarters and turned positive at +1.0% in the most recent one. Back of Napkin SoFi Technologies, Inc. SOFISoFi added 4.1 million members and $16.0B of deposits in a year, growing revenue 43%. Back of Napkin Capital One Financial Corporation COFCapital One reported a loss of $8.58 a share in June 2025 and a profit of $4.73 in June 2026. Back of Napkin Snowflake Inc. SNOWSnowflake's revenue growth went 25.7%, 31.8%, 28.7%, 30.1%, then 33.5%. Software companies this size are supposed to decelerate. Back of Napkin Coherent, Inc. COHRCoherent's data centre revenue grew 58.6% last quarter and the company burned through a billion dollars of cash doing it. Back of Napkin Coinbase Global, Inc. COINIt has now lost money for three consecutive quarters and cut roughly 700 people in May. Back of Napkin Coinbase Global, Inc. COINCoinbase's take rate rose from 0.310% to 0.374% while its volumes fell, which is the strongest pricing-power evidence in this analysis. Moat Dive Costco Wholesale Corporation COSTCostco's comparable sales accelerated from 6.8% to 9.8% over six quarters. Over the same six quarters the number of people walking through the door decelerated from 5.7% to 2.4%. Back of Napkin Sandisk Corporation SNDKRevenue over the same span went from $1.70B a quarter to $8.97B, and the shares from a low of $46.75 to $1,503. Back of Napkin Corpay, Inc. CPAYCorpay's debt reached $10.6B against $3.5B of book equity, three times over, after buying Alpha Group for about $2.4B in October. Back of Napkin Corpay, Inc. CPAYCorpay's corporate payments business has grown organically at 16 to 17% for four straight quarters while its fuel card revenue per transaction rose every quarter. Moat Dive Snap Inc. SNAPSnap's daily users in North America have declined for seven straight quarters, and the rate of decline is getting worse: down 1%, then 2%, 3%, 5%, and now 7%. Back of Napkin Copart, Inc. CPRTCopart's revenue fell 3.6% in the January quarter, the first decline this business has printed in a very long time, and recovered to 2.1% growth in the quarter after. Back of Napkin Mastercard Incorporated MAMastercard's cross-border volume growth has fallen in five consecutive quarters, from 15% to 12%, and cross-border is the most profitable volume it carries. Moat Dive Moody's Corporation MCOMoody's ratings revenue grew 25% last quarter and its analytics revenue grew 4%. Back of Napkin Microchip Technology Incorporated MCHPMicrochip paid out $984.0M of dividends last fiscal year and generated $962.1M of operating cash flow. Back of Napkin AbbVie Inc. ABBVSkyrizi and Rinvoq together did $8.03B last quarter, growing 15%. Humira did $756M. Back of Napkin Airbnb, Inc. ABNBAirbnb's revenue growth accelerated from 6% to 18% over five quarters, and the average price of a night booked rose from $171 to $184. Back of Napkin Abbott Laboratories ABTFive days ago it agreed to pay roughly $670M to settle infant formula litigation, with about 1,700 lawsuits still outstanding. Back of Napkin Accenture plc ACNIt also stopped reporting the artificial intelligence bookings figure it had published every quarter through last August, and the shares are 36% below their high. Back of Napkin Adobe Inc. ADBEAdobe's revenue growth has accelerated three quarters running, to 13%, and the market pays sixteen times earnings for it. Back of Napkin Analog Devices, Inc. ADIAnalog Devices has accelerated its revenue growth in every one of the last six quarters, from 22% to 40%. Back of Napkin Adyen N.V. ADYEYAdyen's take rate rose from 16.25 to 17.05 basis points across 2025 and then fell to 16.21 in the first half of 2026. Moat Dive Affirm Holdings, Inc. AFRMAffirm's operating line went from a $132.6M loss to an $88.4M profit in six quarters, and it has now been positive for three of them in a row. Back of Napkin Agilysys, Inc. AGYSAgilysys grew subscription revenue 26.1% last quarter and raised its full-year guidance to at least 32% subscription growth. Back of Napkin Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock ALABRevenue more than doubled year over year for the sixth quarter running, and the shares are 43% below their high. Back of Napkin Ally Financial Inc. ALLYAlly wrote its digital investing unit down to nothing last year, a $305M goodwill impairment, leaving $190M of goodwill on the entire company. Back of Napkin Applied Materials, Inc. AMATApplied Materials has ranged from $154.47 to $739.67 in a year and sits at $484.19, which tells you the market cannot decide what this company is. Back of Napkin Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMDAMD's data centre revenue doubled to $6.72B in a year and that segment's operating income went from a $155M loss to a $2.10B profit. Back of Napkin Ameriprise Financial, Inc. AMPAmeriprise earned $11.98 a share last quarter against $5.83 five quarters earlier. Back of Napkin Amazon.com, Inc. AMZNAmazon reported $62.6B of net income last quarter and $50.5B of it was writing up its stake in Anthropic. Back of Napkin Zoetis Inc. ZTSZoetis has lost half its market value, from $157.21 to $77.17, while reported earnings per share went from $1.63 to $1.65. Back of Napkin Arista Networks, Inc. ANETIts deferred revenue grew 27.8% in six months to $6.87B, which is customers paying in advance for equipment not yet delivered. Back of Napkin Amphenol Corporation APHAmphenol spent $10.68B on acquisitions this year and its cash fell from $11.13B to $4.73B. Back of Napkin Amphenol Corporation APHAmphenol's organic growth has fallen in every one of the last four reported periods, from 41% to 30%, while acquisitions went from contributing 11 points to 24. Moat Dive Block, Inc. XYZSquare's take rate bottomed at 1.18% in December and has risen for two quarters since, while its payment volume growth accelerated from 7.2% to 13%. Moat Dive Apollo Global Management, Inc. APOApollo lost $1.91B in the March quarter and earned $1.36B in the June one, and neither number describes the business. Back of Napkin Block, Inc. XYZBlock cut more than 40% of its workforce in February and its revenue growth accelerated for the sixth consecutive quarter, to 9.3%. Back of Napkin AppLovin Corporation APPAppLovin grew revenue 52.8% last quarter at an 83.9% adjusted margin, and the shares sit at $298.59 against a 52-week high of $745.61. Back of Napkin AppLovin Corporation APPAppLovin's revenue growth has fallen in every quarter since June 2025, from 77% to 53%. Moat Dive The Western Union Company WUWestern Union's digital business has grown its share of transactions in every one of the last six quarters, from 35% to 43%. Moat Dive AST SpaceMobile, Inc. ASTSIn April, AST SpaceMobile launched a satellite into the wrong orbit and had to de-orbit it. The write-off was $125.9M, booked under a line item called "Loss on Involuntary Conversion." Back of Napkin Walmart Inc. WMTWalmart's US comparable sales halved last quarter, from 4.6% a year ago to 2.6%, while operating income jumped 28.8%. Back of Napkin Broadcom Inc. AVGOBroadcom's contracted future revenue went from $45.0B to $164.6B in a single quarter, on one custom artificial-intelligence chip contract. Back of Napkin Axon Enterprise, Inc. AXONAxon has $15.1B of future contracted bookings against $904M of quarterly revenue, and customers spend 126% of what they spent a year ago. Back of Napkin American Express Company AXPCardmember spending grew 9% last quarter and net card fee revenue grew 15%, the slowest fee growth in two years. Back of Napkin American Express Company AXPAmerican Express charges people hundreds of dollars a year for the privilege of carrying its card, and 155.1 million of them now do, up from 147.5 million six quarters ago. Moat Dive Wingstop Inc. WINGWingstop's operating income grew 21% last year. Its average restaurant sold $242,000 less than it did a year earlier. Back of Napkin Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. ICEIntercontinental Exchange's recurring revenue rose in every one of the last ten quarters, from $357M to $416M, without a single down period. Moat Dive Strategy Inc MSTRStrategy owns 846,000 bitcoin that cost $63.9B and are carried at $49.7B, so the position is roughly $14.3B underwater. Back of Napkin Microsoft Corporation MSFTMicrosoft spent $115.95B on property and equipment last fiscal year, up 80%, and its finance lease obligations grew 44% to $66.59B. Back of Napkin IES Holdings, Inc. IESCIES Holdings' backlog nearly doubled in nine months, from $2.37B to $4.53B, and the company says data centres did it. Back of Napkin IES Holdings, Inc. IESCIES Holdings grew revenue 40% and operating income 60% in its most recent quarter. Moat Dive MSCI Inc. MSCIA pension fund that decides to own emerging market equities has to write down what "emerging market" means, and the definition it writes down is somebody else's property. Moat Dive Intel Corp. INTCIntel made $1.80B of operating profit last quarter and reported an $11.03B net loss. Back of Napkin Intel Corp. INTCIntel's foundry lost 72 cents on every revenue dollar six quarters ago and loses 36 today, narrowing in a straight line. Moat Dive Apple Inc. AAPLApple's revenue growth went from 5.1% to 16.4% across five quarters, which is the fastest this company has grown in years. Back of Napkin MSCI Inc. MSCIThe assets in exchange-traded funds benchmarked to MSCI indexes went from $1.78T to $2.82T in six quarters. Back of Napkin Morgan Stanley MSMorgan Stanley's balance sheet grew $310B in three quarters, from $1.36T to $1.68T, against $6B of additional common equity. Back of Napkin IQVIA Holdings Inc. IQVIQVIA's contracted backlog reached $34.2B and its book-to-bill ratio hit 1.22, meaning it signed $1.22 of new work for every dollar it delivered. Back of Napkin Marvell Technology, Inc. MRVLMarvell sold its automotive ethernet business to Infineon for $2.5B last August and booked a $1.8B gain, which is why one quarter shows $1.90B of net income against $357.8M of operating income. Back of Napkin Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPCMarathon's refining margin went from $17.58 a barrel to $36.33 in twelve months, and diluted earnings per share went from $3.96 to $17.73. Back of Napkin Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. JKHYJack Henry grew earnings per share 20% over nine months on 8% revenue growth, and roughly a quarter of the extra profit came from customers leaving. Back of Napkin Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. JKHYJack Henry won a record 58 core banking clients last year, including fourteen institutions with more than a billion dollars of assets. Moat Dive Morningstar, Inc. MORNTwo of Morningstar's four disclosed renewal rates fell last year, a fifth was withdrawn because the billing system is being replaced, and consolidated organic growth has decelerated for three straight quarters. Moat Dive JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPMJPMorgan reported a 29% return on tangible common equity last quarter. About six points of that came from exchanging Visa shares it has held since 2007. Back of Napkin JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPMJPMorgan's deposits grew $218B over five quarters while the rate it pays on them fell from 1.78% to 1.59%. Moat Dive Klarna Group plc KLARKlarna's take rate rose from 2.64% to 2.84% year over year while its credit losses fell from 0.56% of volume to 0.52%. Moat Dive MarketAxess Holdings Inc. MKTXMarketAxess lost share in United States high-grade corporate bonds in every one of the last four years, from 21.3% to 18.4%, and in high-yield from 17.1% to 12.5%. Moat Dive McCormick & Company, Incorporated MKCAlmost the whole gap is a Mexican business it already half-owned and now consolidates, plus a price increase the consumer is answering by buying less. Back of Napkin Eli Lilly and Company LLYTwo drugs now produce 65% of Eli Lilly's revenue. Mounjaro alone grew 91% to $9.94B in a single quarter. Back of Napkin Meta Platforms, Inc. METAMeta raised its capital spending guidance three times in eight months, from $115B to $145B, and the shares fell from $790.80 to $559.02. Back of Napkin Lam Research Corporation LRCXDeferred revenue fell over the same year, from $2.68B to $2.43B, because customers put down less money in advance. Back of Napkin MercadoLibre, Inc. MELIMercadoLibre grew revenue 49.8% last quarter and its operating income fell 17.2%. Back of Napkin Moody's Corporation MCOA company that wants to sell a bond has to buy two opinions on whether it will pay the money back, and there are effectively two firms whose opinion counts. Moat Dive Mastercard Incorporated MAMastercard now gives back 52.4% of its gross payment network revenue as rebates and incentives to the banks that issue its cards, up from about 50% a year ago. Back of Napkin Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd CRDOTwo customers are 81% of it, and the largest one's share fell from 67% to 49% while that was happening. Back of Napkin CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. CRWDCrowdStrike's free cash flow margin reached 33.7%, its highest ever, two years after an update it shipped crashed millions of computers worldwide. Back of Napkin Super Micro Computer, Inc. SMCISuper Micro's revenue more than doubled to $12.68B in a single quarter and its gross margin fell from 11.8% to 6.3% in the same three months. Back of Napkin CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock CRWVCoreWeave paid $640M of interest last quarter, against $2.58B of revenue and $5.02B of total equity. Back of Napkin Slb N.V. SLBSLB's pretax margin fell from 15.0% to 9.7% in two quarters and has recovered only to 11.4%. Moat Dive Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCOCisco took $5.3B of artificial-intelligence infrastructure orders in nine months and raised its full-year expectation to $9B from $5B. Back of Napkin Slb N.V. SLBSLB's revenue grew 5% last quarter and its segment operating margin fell 290 basis points. Back of Napkin Shopify Inc. SHOPShopify processed $115.6B of merchandise last quarter and grew revenue 34%, its fifth consecutive quarter above 30%. Back of Napkin Chevron Corporation CVXChevron earned $12.07B in the June quarter against $2.49B a year earlier, and $6.11 a share against $1.45. Back of Napkin Starbucks Corporation SBUXStarbucks closed 627 stores in a single quarter, took $755.0M of restructuring charges, and its operating margin fell to 2.9%. Back of Napkin Dollar General Corporation DGDollar General's comparable sales have printed 2.8%, 2.5% and 2.0%, and its gross margin expansion has printed 137, 107 and 65 basis points. Back of Napkin Royalty Pharma plc RPRXRoyalty Pharma collected $773M of cash last quarter and reported $17.9M of net income. Back of Napkin Rocket Companies, Inc. RKTRocket originated $49.6B of mortgages in the June quarter, up 71% from the same quarter a year earlier. Moat Dive The Walt Disney Company DISDisney's Entertainment segment grew operating income 64% last quarter and Sports fell 17%. Back of Napkin DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. DKSFoot Locker, bought eleven months ago for $2.51B, lost $31.9M in the quarter and its comparable sales went from roughly flat to down 3.6%. Back of Napkin Rocket Companies, Inc. RKTRocket now services $2.02 trillion of mortgages, up from $609 billion a year ago, after buying the country's largest servicer in an all-stock deal. Back of Napkin Dlocal Limited DLOdLocal's take rate fell from 2.79% to 2.26% over five quarters, and the gross profit it keeps per dollar processed fell from 1.07% to 0.72%. Moat Dive Rocket Lab USA, Inc. RKLBYou are paying about $39.5B for a rocket company that will do roughly $955M of revenue this year and lose money on every dollar of it, which is 41 times sales for a business that has never earned a profit. Back of Napkin Devon Energy Corporation DVNDevon issued 532 million shares in May to merge with Coterra, nearly doubling the company, and production went from 833 to 1,359 thousand barrels of oil equivalent a day. Back of Napkin Euronet Worldwide, Inc. EEFTEuronet's processing revenue per transaction fell from 14 cents to 8 cents over four years. Moat Dive Transocean Ltd. RIGTransocean's contract backlog has fallen from $9.0B to $6.7B over two years, during what everyone describes as an offshore drilling recovery. Back of Napkin Equifax Inc. EFXThe Work Number was supposed to be the growth engine. Last quarter it grew 7% while the ordinary credit bureau next to it grew 17%. Back of Napkin Equifax Inc. EFXEquifax's employment and income verification business is the asset that separates it from the other two credit bureaus, and it is the one its own annual report describes as highly competitive with low barriers to entry. Moat Dive Remitly Global, Inc. RELYRemitly's active customers grew from 8.9 million to 10.2 million in four quarters while its take rate held near 2.1%. Moat Dive Reddit, Inc. RDDTReddit's revenue per user in the United States went from $7.04 to $10.79 in a year, a 53% increase, on a user base growing 19%. Back of Napkin Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPDEnterprise's revenue rose 61% last quarter and its operating income rose 25%, because most of that revenue is commodity it buys and resells at almost no margin. Back of Napkin Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCLRoyal Caribbean's ships sail at 110% occupancy, meaning most cabins carry more than two people, and it charges $289 per passenger per day. Back of Napkin EQT Corporation EQTEQT's realised gas price went from $5.08 to $2.65 per thousand cubic feet equivalent in one quarter, and earnings per share went from $2.36 to $0.34. Back of Napkin EQT Corporation EQTEQT produced more gas in each of the last four years, from 1,940 to 2,382 billion cubic feet equivalent. Moat Dive Q2 Holdings, Inc. QTWOQ2's net revenue retention has risen three years running, from 108% to 113%, meaning every cohort of banks spends more each year than the last. Moat Dive QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOMQualcomm took a $5.7B tax charge in one quarter and released the same $5.7B four quarters later, which produced a reported loss and then a reported windfall from nothing. Back of Napkin PayPal Holdings, Inc. PYPLPayPal's take rate has fallen in every one of the last six quarters, from 1.867% to 1.785%, without a single reversal. Moat Dive Ford Motor Company FFord lost $8.18B last year on $17.36B of write-offs, most of it admitting that its electric vehicle programmes were worth far less than it had spent on them. Back of Napkin PayPal Holdings, Inc. PYPLPayPal's payment volume growth accelerated from 3% to 10% over six quarters and its operating income went nowhere. Back of Napkin Diamondback Energy, Inc. FANGDiamondback was paid $96.82 a barrel for its oil last quarter and paid $2.15 to get rid of every thousand cubic feet of its gas. Back of Napkin PTC Inc. PTCPTC's design software business has grown at exactly 8% in constant currency for six consecutive quarters. Moat Dive Freeport-McMoRan Inc. FCXA mud rush shut most of Grasberg in September and Indonesian copper production fell from 429 million pounds a quarter to 49. Back of Napkin Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTRPalantir's revenue grew 93% last quarter, and its contracted future business doubled from $5.4B to $11.2B in a year. Back of Napkin FactSet Research Systems Inc. FDSFactSet's operating margin fell six and a half points in a year while its subscription book grew faster than it has since 2023. Back of Napkin FactSet Research Systems Inc. FDSAn analyst who has built five years of models on FactSet's data keys does not move, because every formula in every spreadsheet breaks at once. Moat Dive Fair Isaac Corporation FICOThe wholesale royalty on a FICO score used in a mortgage went from 60 cents to $10.00 over five years, including a doubling from $4.95 in 2026. Moat Dive Pfizer Inc. PFEPfizer has written off $8.7B of acquired drug programmes in two of the last three quarters. Back of Napkin Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. FISIn January FIS handed Global Payments its remaining 45% of Worldpay plus $7.7B in cash, and took back a card-issuing business. Back of Napkin Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. FISFIS revenue rose in every one of the last six quarters without a single decline, from $2.53B to $3.38B. Moat Dive Paychex, Inc. PAYXPaychex has described its client retention rate as being in the range of 82% to 83% in each of the last four annual reports, word for word. Moat Dive Fiserv, Inc. FISVFiserv shares are $52.56 against a 52-week high of $238.59, and both the Securities and Exchange Commission's enforcement division and the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York are investigating the company's own 2025 guidance. Back of Napkin Fiserv, Inc. FISVFiserv's organic revenue growth went from plus 8% to minus 5% across four consecutive quarters, and the inflection lands in the same quarter a securities class period ends. Moat Dive Paychex, Inc. PAYXPaychex grew revenue 17% last year and roughly half of it was an acquisition whose anniversary has just passed. Back of Napkin Payoneer Global Inc. PAYOPayoneer's take rate fell from 126 to 116 basis points over five quarters while its revenue per customer rose from $452 to $533. Moat Dive Flywire Corp FLYWFlywire's gross margin fell from 57.0% to 53.4% over the past year, with the adjusted measure down about 450 basis points. Moat Dive PagSeguro Digital Ltd. PAGSPagBank's payment volume is essentially unchanged over five quarters, from R$129.6B to R$133.4B. Moat Dive Shift4 Payments, Inc. FOURShift4's blended spread dipped to 57 basis points in December and has recovered to 65, a five-quarter high. Moat Dive GBank Financial Holdings Inc. GBFHGBank's nonperforming assets went from $37.4M to $58.2M in six months, and the shares fell from $42.23 to $21.47. Back of Napkin Oracle Corporation ORCLOracle's contracted future revenue went from $138B to $638B in one year, and the stock fell 59% from its high while that happened. Back of Napkin GoDaddy Inc. GDDYGoDaddy's customer count was falling, so at the start of this year it stopped publishing the number. Back of Napkin GoDaddy Inc. GDDYGoDaddy's revenue per customer has risen in every one of the last seven quarters, from $220 to $250. Moat Dive ON Semiconductor Corporation ONON Semiconductor's revenue fell 22.4%, then 15.4%, then 12.0%, then 11.2%. The last two quarters it grew 4.7% and 9.2%. Back of Napkin NVR, Inc. NVRNVR's new orders turned positive after four quarters of decline, up 7% and then 9%, and its gross margin fell from 21.9% to 19.2% over the same stretch. Back of Napkin Novo Nordisk A/S NVOEli Lilly's two obesity and diabetes medicines produced about $14.8B of revenue last quarter, more than Novo Nordisk's entire company. Moat Dive Glanbia plc GLAPFGlanbia's sports nutrition margin fell from 16.9% to 13.0% in one year on record whey costs. Moat Dive NVIDIA Corporation NVDANVIDIA grew revenue 85% last quarter, to $81.6B, and its growth rate has accelerated for four consecutive quarters at that scale. Back of Napkin Global-e Online Ltd. GLBEGlobal-E's take rate has held between 14.3% and 14.6% for four straight quarters while its volume grew 44%. Moat Dive Galaxy Digital GLXYIgnore both numbers. The company that matters now is a West Texas data center landlord that borrowed $3.5B at 9.875% in July, and the crypto desk is what it used to be. Back of Napkin GameStop Corp. GMEGameStop's operating income went from losing $10.8M to earning $143.3M in four quarters, and the stock sits at $18.04, a nickel off its 52-week low. Back of Napkin Netflix, Inc. NFLXNetflix stopped reporting subscriber counts and average revenue per member after the December 2024 quarter, at a record 301.6 million members. Moat Dive Alphabet Inc. GOOGLAlphabet reported $112.1B of net income in a single quarter. Ninety-nine billion of it was writing up private shareholdings, mostly SpaceX. Back of Napkin Alphabet Inc. GOOGLGoogle Cloud's operating margin doubled from 17.5% to 35.6% in six quarters while its revenue growth went from 28% to 82%. Moat Dive Netflix, Inc. NFLXNetflix earned $5.28B in the March quarter and $2.8B of it was a break fee from Warner Bros. Discovery for a deal that did not happen. Back of Napkin Global Payments Inc. GPNGlobal Payments processes more United States card volume than anyone, roughly $2.8T and over a fifth of the national total. Moat Dive NextEra Energy, Inc. NEENextEra's renewables backlog grew from about 30 gigawatts to 35.1 over four quarters, adding three to four every quarter. Moat Dive NextEra Energy, Inc. NEENextEra reported net income of $3.14B last quarter, up 55%, and $424M of that was a mark on interest rate contracts. Back of Napkin The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GSGoldman Sachs earned a 23.5% return on equity last quarter, against 12.8% a year earlier, and its banking and markets division nearly doubled its pretax income. Back of Napkin Nasdaq, Inc. NDAQNasdaq has won 86% of the listings eligible to choose it, for 46 consecutive quarters. Moat Dive GitLab Inc. GTLBEvery forward indicator GitLab publishes has fallen for five consecutive quarters, in lockstep, while revenue still grows 23%. Back of Napkin Nasdaq, Inc. NDAQNasdaq's operating income has risen in every one of the last six quarters, from $547M to $712M. Back of Napkin Warrior Met Coal, Inc. HCCEveryone reads Warrior Met as a bet on steelmaking coal prices. Coal prices went up 6% over the last year. Warrior's tonnage went up 65%. Back of Napkin The Home Depot, Inc. HDHome Depot has not had a quarter of positive customer transactions in over a year. Every comparable-sales figure it has reported since has been carried entirely by people spending more per visit. Back of Napkin Hims & Hers Health, Inc. HIMSTwo quarters ago Hims & Hers grew 3.8% and earned money. Last quarter it grew 38.2% and lost $97.2M at the operating line. Back of Napkin Nebius Group N.V. NBISNebius has reported net income twice in six quarters, and both times it came from revaluing a stake in a private database company rather than from operations. Back of Napkin Robinhood Markets, Inc. HOODRobinhood's prediction market went from $10M of quarterly revenue to $156M in a year, while its crypto business fell from $160M to $100M. Back of Napkin Navient Corporation NAVINavient's federal student loan portfolio shrank 10.3% in a year, to $26.6B, and that is the business working as designed. Back of Napkin Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. IBKRCustomer margin borrowing grew 67% in a year, to $108.5B, which is where most of that profit comes from. Back of Napkin Micron Technology, Inc. MUMicron's revenue grew 345.7% last quarter and its gross margin went from 38% to 85%. Back of Napkin International Business Machines Corporation IBMIt also stopped publishing the artificial intelligence number it had been leading with, which was $12.5B cumulative the last time anyone saw it. Back of Napkin MasTec, Inc. MTZMasTec's backlog reached $21.4B, up 30% in a year, and in July it paid about $1.6B for an electrical contractor it describes as a leader in building data centre infrastructure. Back of Napkin Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. ICEFive days ago Intercontinental Exchange raised $3.73B of notes and drew a $2.0B term loan to buy MarketAxess. Back of Napkin Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. BBWThey pay him to grow total revenue and to hold the profit margin above a line, which means he will push high-margin licensing and partner-run stores, defend price, and let cheap volume walk. Proxy Report Uber Technologies, Inc. UBERThe last two equity cycles were finished by the share price, not the operating scorecard. Proxy Report Navient Corporation NAVIWhen the scoreboard said grow earnings, the bonus paid 10%. So the board changed the scoreboard. Proxy Report Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. ICEICE's bonus floor is 85%: clearing the lowest bar already pays almost the whole target. Proxy Report Corpay, Inc. CPAYThey pay him to sign a billion dollars of acquisitions a year and to grow earnings measured with those acquisitions taken back out, which means he will keep buying companies with borrowed money and will never have to prove any of them paid off. Proxy Report Klarna Group plc KLARYou are paying about $5.3B for a network that moved $36.6B last quarter, kept $446M after processing, funding and credit costs, and has finally crossed into reported profit. Back of Napkin PagSeguro Digital Ltd. PAGSYou're paying about 5.9 times trailing earnings (TTM through Q2 2026) and 0.81 times book for a Brazilian payments-and-banking franchise that returned R$2.0B to shareholders over the last twelve months, roughly 16% of today's market cap, just as the Selic easing cycle it waited two years for reaches four straight cuts. Back of Napkin Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. ITUBYou are paying 8.3x forward earnings and about 2.1x book for Brazil's largest private bank running a 24.3% managerial return on equity with delinquency at multi-year lows, and an 8.1% trailing cash yield while you wait. Back of Napkin 139130 139130iM Financial Group trades at 0.51x book and about 6x trailing earnings two years after its bank subsidiary won Korea's first new nationwide banking charter in three decades, having cut its real-estate project-financing NPL ratio from 11.1% to 3.8% in a single year while pushing toward a 42% shareholder-return ratio and a record 12.27% CET1 ratio. Back of Napkin Inter & Co, Inc. INTRYou're paying 1.1x book and 7.7x trailing earnings for a 45-million-client Brazilian digital bank compounding net revenue 32% a year with ROE that just printed 16.3%, a record, while the stock sits 51% below its 52-week high. Back of Napkin Adyen N.V. ADYEYAdyen printed its third consecutive half at 21% constant-currency net revenue growth on August 13, raised the 2026 guide to 21% to 23%, and the ADR jumped 17% on the print to $12.25, a third above where it sat when the July memo was written. Back of Napkin StoneCo Ltd. STNEStoneCo closed at $9.55 on August 14, a fresh 52-week low, priced at 4.7x FY2026 consensus earnings and 1.35x book for a franchise the company reports earning a 21.6% return on equity, and the second-quarter print showed adjusted net income down 2.6% while adjusted basic EPS rose 8.6%, so the shrinking share count is doing all of the work. Back of Napkin Sea Limited SEYou're paying $68.2B of enterprise value, 25.2x FY2027 consensus, for a Southeast Asian marketplace, consumer lender and game publisher that grew revenue 48.1% last quarter and adjusted EBITDA 10.6%, carrying $5.0B of net cash and a 6.7% free-cash-flow yield (TTM, on EV). Back of Napkin Nu Holdings Ltd. NUYou're paying 6.2x tangible book and about 19x FY2026E consensus earnings for the largest digital bank in the Americas, one day after it printed its first $1B-plus quarter: net income $1.06B, a 33% ROE, gross revenue up 39% FX neutral, while Brazil's incumbent banks fetch roughly 2.2x tangible book on a ≈13% median ROE. Back of Napkin Novo Nordisk A/S NVONovo Nordisk trades at about 11.8x trailing adjusted earnings, and the quarter just printed was better than the tape suggests: Q2 adjusted sales grew 7% and adjusted operating profit 11% at constant rates, and the 2026 outlook was raised for the second time this year. Back of Napkin Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. BBVABBVA is a EUR 135.5B Spanish-domiciled bank earning a 22.2% return on tangible equity, close to double the European large-cap average, and it trades at 2.42x a clean tangible book value of EUR 10.14 per share with the failed Sabadell bid now off the table and capital flowing back through a fresh EUR 2B buyback. Back of Napkin Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. MFGAt ¥8,094 in Tokyo you are paying roughly 14.1x forward earnings and 1.73x book for a Japanese megabank earning an 11.4% ROE, a multiple that has already tripled off its decade median and now sits exactly at the three-megabank median rather than at the bottom. Back of Napkin NatWest Group plc NWGNatWest posted a 19.7% return on tangible equity in H1 2026, lifted its full-year guidance, pulled its buyback decision forward six months, and now sits at its 52-week high on about 2.0x tangible book after a re-rate that has nearly tripled the multiple off its decade median. Back of Napkin Bank OZK OZKBank OZK earns roughly a 13% return on tangible common equity at a sub-40% efficiency ratio, the best-in-class profile in regional banking, yet trades at 1.1x tangible book and 8.6x earnings, the cheapest multiple of any high-return regional, because its loan book carries commercial-real-estate concentration at 358% of risk-based capital against a 300% regulatory line. Back of Napkin Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. SMFGSMFG earns a 10.4% reported return on equity and an 11.4% return on tangible equity, and after a re-rate that carried it from roughly 0.5x book in 2021 to 1.59x today it is the cheapest of Japan's three megabanks by a hair rather than by a mile, at 14.9x the company's own FY3/2027 guide. Back of Napkin Space Exploration Technologies Corp. SPCXSpaceX's first public financials show an $18.7B-revenue business (FY2025) growing 33%, carried by a Starlink engine that alone did $11.4B of sales at roughly $4.4B of segment operating profit, all wrapped inside a $2.6B consolidated operating loss and a free-cash outflow that reached $25.0B in the first half of 2026 as Starship and the next Starlink generation absorbed $28.5B of capex. Back of Napkin Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited TSMTSMC printed the strongest quarter in its history on July 16, 36% revenue growth, a record 67.7% gross margin, and a third 2026 guidance raise in a single year, and the stock still fell over 5% because the company also lifted 2026 capex to $60-64B and framed it as the start of a multi-year step-up. Back of Napkin UMG UMGUMG repriced from music-royalty compounder to show-me story in one session: a 25% drop on Jul 31 after Q2 2026 subscription growth excluding Downtown slowed to 6.7% in constant currency, against the company's own 8-10% target band and consensus near 11%, leaving the Amsterdam line at €14.44, about 14x FY2025 adjusted EPS of €1.03. Back of Napkin BARC BARCBarclays trades at 1.24x tangible net asset value and about 10x forward earnings, the cheapest of the UK large-cap banks, because a global Investment Bank both caps the multiple and, at H1 2026, drove a statutory 14.8% return on tangible equity with income guidance rising. Back of Napkin ASML Holding N.V. ASMLYou are paying $1,629 a share (€1,414 at about $1.15 per euro), 37x FY2026 consensus earnings, for the only company on earth that sells EUV lithography machines, in a year management has raised revenue guidance twice in six months, to €43-45B (up 32-38%) at a 54-56% gross margin. Back of Napkin Canaan Inc. CANAt $0.31 you are paying ≈$214M for a Bitcoin-mining ASIC maker sitting on ≈$165M of cash-plus-crypto, ≈$530M of FY2025 revenue, and roughly half its own book value; the market is betting dilution or delisting zeroes the equity before any of that is realized. Back of Napkin Cheche Group Inc. CCGCheche Group is a Chinese online auto-insurance broker whose stock has run from $0.35 to $13 in a year on a real inflection: FY2025 revenue fell 13% to RMB 3.0B (≈$415M) while the operating loss collapsed from RMB 155M in 2023 to RMB 19M in 2025, and Q4 2025 printed the first quarterly operating profit in the company's public history. Back of Napkin Cameco Corporation CCJAt $87.58 you're paying about $38.1B of market cap and $53.3B of enterprise value for a Tier-1 uranium producer that is still underearning against a strategic-metal cycle the reactor build has quietly locked in. Back of Napkin Glanbia plc GLAPFGlanbia has already been re-rated for the thing that makes it interesting: it is the only large protein brand owner that also produces whey, and its stock is up about 86% off the €12.00 low while pure-play branded peers BellRing and Simply Good Foods sit 77% and 68% below their own highs. Back of Napkin LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne LVMHFLVMH trades at 20.9x trailing earnings against 38.7x for Hermès and 34.9x for Richemont, and it is the only one of the three that just reported an inflection: organic growth turned positive at 2% in the first half, with Fashion and Leather Goods back to growth in the second quarter after two years of decline. Back of Napkin Upstart Holdings, Inc. UPSTUpstart is down 68% from its 52-week high to $27.71 while its loan volume grew 61% year on year, which is the whole puzzle: the business is originating more than ever, yet the stock trades where it does because the profit is non-GAAP, back-half-loaded, and funded by whoever is willing to buy the loans this quarter. Back of Napkin Toast, Inc. TOSTToast now runs roughly a fifth of US small and mid-market restaurants, and the profit inflection is no longer a promise: $342M of net income in FY25 and $126M more in Q1 2026 alone, on revenue still compounding above 20%. Back of Napkin Shift4 Payments, Inc. FOURAt $50.33 you are paying 7.9x FY26E adjusted earnings and a 13.4% free-cash-flow yield (TTM, on market cap) for a payments company that grew gross revenue 32% last quarter and is guiding to 26% to 31% growth in its core revenue metric this year; the stock is down more than half from its 52-week high of $108.50. Back of Napkin Flywire Corp FLYWFlywire re-accelerated to 37% FX-neutral revenue growth in Q1 2026 and carries a 7.1% free-cash-flow yield (TTM, on market cap), yet still prices at 2.8x EV/revenue, right at the peer median, eighteen months after a visa-policy shock cut the stock in half. Back of Napkin SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. SSNCYou are paying about 10x management's own 2026 adjusted earnings guide for the outsourced back office of the alternative-asset industry, a business whose revenue grew 8.8% last quarter and whose guidance was raised, not cut. Back of Napkin Bill.com Holdings, Inc. BILLYou are paying about 12x free cash flow and roughly 3x sales for BILL, and the market is handing you a business whose core engine, subscription plus transaction fees, is compounding 16% while the shares sit near a 52-week low around $41. Back of Napkin Payoneer Global Inc. PAYOPayoneer at $7.12 is no longer a standalone fundamentals story: on June 12, 2026 it agreed to be acquired by Nuvei for $7.40 per share in cash, roughly $2.75B of equity value, and the stock now sits 3.9% below the deal price with a close guided to mid-2027. Back of Napkin Remitly Global, Inc. RELYRemitly at $24.13 is priced at roughly 38x FY2026E consensus EPS and about 12x EV to guided FY2026 adjusted EBITDA for a business that just grew send volume 37%, revenue 25%, and swung net income up 332% in a single quarter, with $610M of net cash. Back of Napkin Global-e Online Ltd. GLBEAt $38.12 you are paying 33.6x this year's expected adjusted earnings, roughly 4.6x enterprise value to expected revenue, for the merchant-of-record layer of cross-border e-commerce; the business just guided to 30%+ GMV growth at a rising 21-22% adjusted EBITDA margin and carries about $530M of net cash. Back of Napkin The Western Union Company WUAt $8.88 you're paying about 5.1x FY2026 consensus earnings for a business that returned roughly 20% of its current market cap to shareholders in FY2025 dividends and buybacks; the melt is what you're being paid to hold. Back of Napkin WEX Inc. WEXWEX at $164.30 is about 8.5 times FY26E adjusted earnings for a fleet-card, benefits, and corporate-payments business that just beat the high end of its own guidance, raised the full-year outlook, ended a proxy fight by refreshing its board, and authorized a $1B buyback against a $5.7B market cap. Back of Napkin Q2 Holdings, Inc. QTWOQ2 Holdings just crossed the line every SaaS skeptic said it wouldn't: GAAP profitable, $195.8M of trailing free cash flow, revenue compounding at 14%, and a $2.7B backlog, yet the stock sits 41% below its 52-week high. Back of Napkin Cboe Global Markets, Inc. CBOECboe Global Markets owns the only venue that can list S&P 500 index (SPX) options and the VIX volatility complex, and that franchise just produced trailing-twelve-month net revenue of $2.50B at a 65.7% operating margin with $576M of net cash on the balance sheet. Back of Napkin TransUnion TRUYou are paying 16.6x FY26E adjusted earnings and 13.9x EV to FY2025 EBITDA for the smaller of three US credit bureaus, against a peer median of 26.2x forward earnings and 17.3x EV/EBITDA, with a 3.3% free-cash-flow yield (FY2025, on EV). Back of Napkin Morningstar, Inc. MORNYou are paying 16.3x trailing earnings and 14.5x the 2026 consensus for a business that grew revenue 10.8% last quarter at a 24.2% operating margin, converts more than all of its net income into cash, and retired 8.8% of its own share count in a year. Back of Napkin Euronet Worldwide, Inc. EEFTYou're paying about 7.4x FY26E adjusted EPS for a payments business that just grew revenue 10.5% in Q1, compounds adjusted EPS in the low teens, throws off a 9.1% free-cash-flow yield (TTM, mkt cap), and retired roughly a fifth of its market cap in buybacks last year. Back of Napkin Dlocal Limited DLODLocal is the one-API payments rail for 40-plus emerging markets, a net-cash franchise that grew payment volume 73% and gross profit 40% in Q1 2026, and at $14.48 it costs 22.6 times trailing earnings and 17.6 times FY26E. Back of Napkin Fair Isaac Corporation FICOYou are paying about 29 times forward earnings, roughly $29 billion and 37% below its high, for the company that owns the reference credit score written into US mortgage, auto, and card underwriting, plus a decisioning-software arm that has stopped growing. Back of Napkin Global Payments Inc. GPNGlobal Payments closed the Worldpay purchase and the Issuer Solutions sale to FIS in January 2026, and at $77.82 the remade pure-play merchant acquirer trades at 5.6x FY26 guided adjusted earnings with a 10.6% free-cash-flow yield (FY25, on market cap). Back of Napkin Qualys, Inc. QLYSQualys prints a 39% EBITDA margin, an 83% gross margin, a 5.2% FCF yield on TTM cash flow, and holds ≈$467M net cash on a $5.6B market cap, yet trades at 29x TTM earnings after a 114% run off the 52-week low. Back of Napkin Loews Corporation LLoews trades at ≈$114 with a $23.6B market cap, roughly 1.26x book, while owning 92% of CNA Financial (public market value ≈$11B), the entire Boardwalk Pipelines franchise, Loews Hotels, and a $6.2B cash-and-investments pile at the parent. Back of Napkin Domino's Pizza, Inc. DPZDomino's has de-rated 36% from its 52-week high to 16.6x forward earnings, and the royalty engine underneath the de-rate is intact: international franchise fees are 6.9% of revenue and 24% of segment profit at an 85% margin. Back of Napkin Tractor Supply Company TSCOYou're paying 14.8x forward earnings, the cheapest Tractor Supply has been in more than a decade, for a 2,641-store rural franchise that has grown revenue every year since 2015 and retired 22% of its share count along the way. Back of Napkin nVent Electric plc NVTYou are paying about 35 times 2026 earnings and 26 times 2026 EBITDA for an electrical-connection-and-protection company that has re-rated roughly 2.3 times off its low because one of its two segments turned into a data-center-power and liquid-cooling growth engine. Back of Napkin Cloudflare, Inc. NETCloudflare sits near a 52-week high at ≈42x trailing sales and roughly 270x trailing free cash flow, a price the underlying content-delivery and Zero-Trust business cannot carry on its own math. Back of Napkin Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation BAHAt $62.83 Booz Allen has fallen about 48% from its $120.05 high, back near where it traded in 2021, even as total backlog hit a record $38B and trailing book-to-bill held at 1.1x. Back of Napkin Big Digital Energy, Inc. BGDEBig Digital Energy is the rebranded shell of Mawson Infrastructure (former MIGI, same SEC CIK 0001218683), a sub-scale Bitcoin-hosting operator with negative equity, a working-capital deficit, and a chronic cash burn now repackaged as an AI/HPC datacenter play. Back of Napkin Altria Group, Inc. MOYou are paying about 12.7x forward earnings for a US cigarette monopoly-in-effect that still grew adjusted EPS 4.4% while its cigarette volumes fell 10%, and you collect a near-6% dividend from a 57-year raiser while you wait. Back of Napkin Diageo plc DEODiageo is the world's largest premium-spirits house, and at ≈$81 the ADR sits near a 52-week low of $72.45 after a roughly 44% slide from its 2022 peak, with the market having de-rated a 22-24x quality compounder down to ≈17x forward earnings. Back of Napkin NICE Ltd. NICENICE has de-rated roughly 45% from its $175 high to ≈$96.81 on a single fear: that conversational-AI agents deflect calls, shrink the human-seat count its contact-center software is priced on, and turn a double-digit cloud grower into a melting per-seat annuity. Back of Napkin VICI Properties Inc. VICIYou are paying about 10.6x forward AFFO and a 6.9% dividend yield to own the landlord of Caesars Palace, the Venetian, MGM Grand and Mandalay Bay, irreplaceable Strip real estate that has paid rent at 100% occupancy straight through a pandemic. Back of Napkin Republic Services, Inc. RSGYou are paying roughly 15x EV/EBITDA and about 30x forward earnings for Republic Services, and the premium buys one of the most reliable pricing machines in the market: core price of 5.7% running well above internal cost inflation, a scarce landfill network no competitor can replicate, and 22 straight years of dividend increases. Back of Napkin Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. HLFHerbalife trades at 5.7x earnings and 3.6x free cash flow with a $1.37B market cap on $5.0B of revenue, a business the market has priced for terminal decline while it quietly delevers. Back of Napkin PTC Inc. PTCYou are paying about 16 times forward earnings and 6.5 times recurring revenue for a mission-critical engineering-software franchise that grew constant-currency ARR 8.5% last quarter and threw off roughly $928M of trailing free cash flow, a compounder that carried software-multiple valuations for a decade and now sits a hair above its 52-week low. Back of Napkin nLIGHT, Inc. LASRnLIGHT is a small-cap laser maker that has quietly become a defense company, with Aerospace and Defense now 67% of FY2025 revenue and directed-energy weapon programs its declared future, yet it still loses money on a GAAP basis and trades at roughly 11x sales. Back of Napkin Roku, Inc. ROKURoku just printed its first full year of GAAP net income ($88M in 2025) and doubled free cash flow to $478M, and the stock has re-rated ≈1.8x off its 52-week low to $142 as the market recognized the advertising/OS platform finally out-earning its loss-leader hardware. Back of Napkin OneMain Holdings, Inc. OMFOneMain trades at $59, about 8x forward earnings, and pays a $4.20 annual dividend for a roughly 7% yield, while charge-offs on its nonprime installment book sit at cyclically high levels and the market debates whether that yield is a gift or a warning. Back of Napkin Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV BUDAnheuser-Busch InBev trades at 17× trailing earnings and 10× EV/EBITDA on $59B of revenue and the global #1 beer franchise, with the Bud Light boycott now three years in the rearview and EM volumes compounding. Back of Napkin Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. IIPRInnovative Industrial Properties is a single-tenant cannabis triple-net REIT trading at 0.91× book and a 12.3% dividend yield because the market is pricing rent collection as broken, not because the buildings are gone. Back of Napkin TKO Group Holdings, Inc. TKOTKO owns the two highest-margin franchises in live sports, UFC and WWE, and just walked into a media-rights step-up cycle that drops almost entirely to a 60%-plus-margin EBITDA line. Back of Napkin Enova International, Inc. ENVAEnova is an online non-prime lender that just printed its cleanest credit year of the cycle, with the consolidated net charge-off ratio falling to 7.6% in Q1 2026 from 8.6% a year earlier while the book grew 23% to a record $5.3 billion. Back of Napkin Sezzle Inc. SEZLSezzle is a profitable buy-now-pay-later lender compounding gross merchandise volume more than 50% a year while its loss rate falls, and the market has rewarded it with a roughly 3.4x move off the 52-week low to a 33x forward multiple. Back of Napkin CDW Corporation CDWCDW is an asset-light IT reseller earning ≈12% ROIC and ≈6% FCF yield, trading at ≈13x forward earnings in the middle of its 52-week range after a recovery off the low but still ≈24% below the high. Back of Napkin Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. BFHBread Financial trades at roughly 9x forward earnings and 1.7x tangible book while posting a 27% return on tangible common equity, but it does so with charge-offs that just came off a multi-year peak and a receivables book leveraged to a handful of retail partners. Back of Napkin World Acceptance Corporation WRLDWorld Acceptance is a branch-based subprime installment lender whose earnings have already been gutted by the credit cycle, with fiscal-2026 (ended March 2026) diluted EPS collapsing to $6.88 from $16.30 a year earlier as net charge-offs ran 18.7% of average net loans. Back of Napkin Essential Utilities, Inc. WTRGEssential Utilities is no longer a standalone story; it is a regulated water-and-gas utility wrapped inside an all-stock takeout by American Water (AWK) at a fixed 0.305 exchange ratio, so the math is now arbitrage spread plus the standalone floor if the deal breaks. Back of Napkin Newell Brands Inc. NWLNewell Brands is a $7.2B portfolio of household-name consumer brands (Sharpie, Rubbermaid, Graco, Coleman, Yankee Candle) wrapped around $5.45B of net debt, three years into an operating turnaround that has finally pushed gross margin up while organic sales still shrink. Back of Napkin H2O America HTOH2O America (formerly SJW Group) is a 58-year Dividend King regulated water utility trading at ≈19x to 20x forward adjusted earnings, near its 52-week high, with a $2.7B 2026-30 capex plan that mechanically grows rate base at a 6% to 8% EPS clip. Back of Napkin Verisk Analytics, Inc. VRSKVerisk is now a pure-play insurance data utility after selling Wood Mackenzie and its financial-services and marketing units, and the stock has fallen from $315 to the low $180s even as the core keeps compounding. Back of Napkin Tradeweb Markets Inc. TWAt $93, Tradeweb trades for about 23x forward earnings on a business that just grew revenue 21% in the most recent quarter and converts roughly 55% of revenue into adjusted EBITDA, yet the stock sits 37% below its 52-week high. Back of Napkin MarketAxess Holdings Inc. MKTXAt $112.44 the stock has been cut in half from its 52-week high and trades at roughly 13x forward earnings, a multiple that has never been this low for a business that still throws off ≈$370M of free cash flow on a fortress balance sheet. Back of Napkin Gentex Corporation GNTXGentex is a debt-free, ≈63% market-share auto-mirror franchise trading at about 14× trailing earnings with a 6% FCF yield, a 1.9% dividend, and a buyback that's actually shrinking the count. Back of Napkin Universal Health Services, Inc. UHSUniversal Health Services sits at 6.3x trailing earnings and 6.3x forward, with the stock down 41% from its 52-week high while FY25 EPS grew 37% and operating income jumped 19%. Back of Napkin Fastenal Company FASTFastenal sits at ≈41x trailing earnings for a 5-6% organic growth distributor whose entire structural moat lives in on-site vending machines bolted to factory floors. Back of Napkin Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. HALOHalozyme is a royalty engine on subcutaneous biologics, throwing off ≈$573M EBITDA on $1.4B revenue with 78% gross margins, but the stock sits at 23x trailing earnings because the market is staring straight at the MDASE patent cliff that arrives in March 2027 for the lead royalty stream. Back of Napkin Allegion plc ALLEAllegion is a high-quality lock-and-door-hardware compounder priced at 18x earnings after a 26% drawdown from the $183 high, with the market pricing in non-residential construction weakness that's already visible in the order book. Back of Napkin Invesco Ltd. IVZInvesco sits at $29.24 near a 52-week high after doubling off the $14.46 low, with a 2.9% dividend and a clean balance sheet, but the reported GAAP loss masks a business throwing off $1.8B of operating cash flow. Back of Napkin Viper Energy, Inc. VNOMViper Energy is the largest public oil-and-gas minerals owner, collecting a no-capex royalty on mostly Diamondback-operated Permian wells it never has to pay to drill, at roughly 85% cash margins. Back of Napkin Enact Holdings Inc. ACTYou are paying about 8.9x forward earnings and roughly 1.1x book for the most underwriting-disciplined private mortgage insurer in the US, a business throwing off about $720M of annual free cash flow on a $5.9B market cap with a 12.7% return on equity and capital sufficiency far above the regulatory floor. Back of Napkin Green Dot Corporation GDOTYou are paying $12.82 for a stock sitting on $1.36B of net cash against a $727M market cap, mid-way through a $1.1B breakup that pays $8.11 in guaranteed cash plus 0.2215 shares of a newly public CommerceOne-Green Dot Bank holding company per share. Back of Napkin Expand Energy Corporation EXEYou are paying about 9.9x forward earnings and roughly 3x forward EV/EBITDA for the largest natural gas producer in North America, a balance sheet carrying net debt of just 0.4x EBITDA, and a stock now sitting at the very bottom of its 52-week range after a 31% slide from the high. Back of Napkin Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. MMCYou are paying about 17.7x forward earnings for the largest insurance broker on earth, an asset-light franchise that converts roughly 90% of operating cash to free cash flow and has expanded margins for eighteen straight years. Back of Napkin Onto Innovation Inc. ONTOOnto Innovation is the advanced-packaging-tilted metrology and inspection specialist, debt-free with net cash, whose stock has gone from $89 to $336 in a year as the market priced an HBM and 2.5D recovery off the FY25 earnings trough. Back of Napkin Gen Digital Inc. GENGen Digital is the consumer cyber-safety cash machine behind Norton, LifeLock, and Avast, now bolted to MoneyLion, a consumer-fintech business meant to graft a growth engine onto a slow-growing franchise, and the whole thing sits near 9.6 times forward non-GAAP earnings. Back of Napkin Fiserv, Inc. FIYou're paying about 7.5 times depressed 2026 consensus earnings, roughly $34 billion, for one of the two dominant US bank-and-merchant processing platforms whose stock has fallen about 73% from $238 to $64 after a guidance collapse. Back of Napkin Alphabet Inc. GOOGAlphabet sits at 28x trailing earnings and about 34x forward, a market multiple for a business whose Cloud arm is now growing 30%-plus into a structural compute shortage while Search just printed its strongest growth year since 2021. Back of Napkin Wolfspeed Inc. WOLFWolfspeed is the only Western pure-play silicon-carbide maker, fresh out of Chapter 11, now carrying $1.8B of debt against $1.16B of cash and a restored positive book equity, on a revenue base that shrank to $150M in the March quarter while gross margin stayed negative. Back of Napkin RELX Plc RELXYou are paying about 17x forward earnings for the highest-quality information-analytics franchise outside the US tech megacaps, a business that compounded revenue and margin every year for five running and converts 97% of net income to free cash. Back of Napkin Flagstar Financial, Inc. FLGYou are paying about 0.8 times tangible book, roughly $6.3 billion, for a recapitalized bank that just printed its first GAAP-profitable quarter, running off the New York rent-regulated multifamily book that nearly killed it while building a commercial loan book behind a fortress capital ratio. Back of Napkin IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. IDXXIDEXX is a razor-and-blade veterinary-diagnostics franchise earning a 40% return on capital, where recurring consumables and lab services compounded near double-digits straight through a falling-vet-visit backdrop. Back of Napkin Popular, Inc. BPOPPopular is the dominant Puerto Rico bank, about $75B in assets and a third of island deposits, now earning a mid-teens return on tangible equity and shrinking its share count roughly 14% in three years. Back of Napkin Mettler-Toledo International Inc. MTDMettler-Toledo is the highest-return business in the lab-and-industrial-instruments group, earning a 36% return on invested capital while the stock has fallen 24% from its 52-week high to roughly peer multiples. Back of Napkin Clear Secure, Inc. YOUYou're paying about 5.3 times revenue and roughly 19 times EBITDA, near $5.2 billion enterprise value, for the CLEAR identity network: a debt-free, FCF-rich subscription business whose airport-security membership funds an expansion into broader identity verification. Back of Napkin Sun Communities, Inc. SUIYou're paying about 17.8 times an estimated 2026 Core FFO near $6.97 for a manufactured-housing and RV REIT that, over the past year, sold its marina business for $5.65 billion, repaid roughly $3.6 billion of debt, cut net debt to about $1.2 billion, and turned the buyback on. Back of Napkin Cavco Industries, Inc. CVCOCavco is the more vertically integrated of the two public manufactured-home makers, a net-cash builder with a captive lending-and-insurance arm that just posted record FY2026 revenue of $2.24B and diluted EPS of $23.98 on its newly filed 10-K. Back of Napkin Gulfport Energy Corp GPORYou are paying about 5x earnings and a 12% free-cash-flow yield for a post-bankruptcy Appalachia and SCOOP natural gas pure-play that has retired roughly a third of its float since 2021 and keeps buying back stock above its own cash generation. Back of Napkin Champion Homes, Inc. SKYYou're paying about 21.5 times trailing earnings of $3.65 for the largest US factory-built-home maker by volume, a debt-free business carrying roughly $529 million of net cash that just earned a record $214 million while buying back $200 million of its own stock. Back of Napkin Teradata Corporation TDCTeradata is the legacy enterprise data-warehouse incumbent re-platforming onto the cloud, and at roughly 1.7 times revenue with a 9% free-cash-flow yield it is priced as a melting asset. Back of Napkin Atlassian Corporation TEAMAtlassian is the default operating system for software and IT teams, charging per-seat subscriptions on Jira, Confluence, and Service Management, a business compounding TTM revenue past $6.1 billion at roughly 30% with about $1.4 billion of free cash flow underneath the GAAP losses. Back of Napkin SEI Investments Company SEICYou're paying about 15 times forward earnings for a diversified financial-technology firm that runs the back office for other people's funds and also manages money, a high-return compounder that just posted double-digit growth on every line and is buying back its own stock. Back of Napkin Global Partners LP GLPYou are paying about 11.9x trailing earnings and a 6.6% distribution for a Northeast convenience-store and downstream petroleum LP that just printed a Q1 2026 with net income of $70.1M against $18.7M a year earlier, on a diluted EPS of $1.85 versus $0.36. Back of Napkin Cognex Corporation CGNXYou are paying roughly 11 times revenue and 44 times this year's earnings, about $11 billion near a 52-week high after more than doubling off the low, for the leading independent machine-vision company two quarters into a cyclical recovery with operating margin re-expanding hard. Back of Napkin HF Sinclair Corporation DINOHF Sinclair is a five-segment Western US refiner priced at 7.6x forward earnings and roughly 5.3x EV to EBITDA, where the refining engine threw off a $648M net-income quarter in Q1 2026 against a breakeven quarter a year earlier. Back of Napkin Bloom Energy Corporation BEYou are paying $78B of market cap, 129x forward earnings, and 32x trailing sales for a solid-oxide fuel cell maker that printed its strongest quarter ever in Q1 2026 ($751M revenue, $0.23 GAAP diluted EPS) on hyperscaler behind-the-meter demand. Back of Napkin Ashland Inc. ASHYou're paying ≈$3.0B equity (≈$4.1B EV) for a specialty-chemicals roll-up that just took an $800M+ goodwill write-down on a business doing ≈$1.82B revenue and ≈$370M run-rate EBITDA, priced at 11x EV/EBITDA on a trough year. The asymmetry is whether pharma-grade cellulosics and personal-care biopolymers, the 60% of the portfolio that earns specialty margins, can carry the deadweight Intermediates and Solvents segment long enough for management to either fix it or divest it. Back of Napkin Twilio Inc. TWLOTwilio is the communications-API platform that completed a turnaround from cash-burning hypergrowth into a profitable, free-cash-flow-generative business, and is now growing high-teens again on an AI customer-engagement cycle. Back of Napkin EVERTEC, Inc. EVTCYou are paying about 6x forward adjusted earnings (or roughly 9x GAAP) for the dominant payments processor in Puerto Rico and the Caribbean, with a 39% drawdown from highs after a Pix-related cybersecurity incident at Brazilian subsidiary Sinqia led to a Brazilian Central Bank suspension. Back of Napkin STMicroelectronics N.V. STMSTMicroelectronics is the largest European chipmaker, and after a two-year industrial downcycle that took earnings to near-zero, the stock has run from $21 to $79 in roughly a year as the market prices the recovery before the income statement shows it. Back of Napkin Ondas Holdings Inc. ONDSYou are paying a $4.9B market cap for a defense-robotics roll-up that did $50.7M of revenue in all of FY2025 and another $50.1M in Q1 2026 alone, sits on roughly $652M of cash and investments, and is guided to about $394M of FY2026 revenue, roughly 8x the prior year. Back of Napkin Baidu, Inc. BIDUAt $132 a share you're paying $44.9B for roughly $26B of net cash and investments plus an $18B-EV operating business, where AI Cloud revenue compounded 79% YoY and GPU Cloud 184% YoY on the most recent print. Back of Napkin Alibaba Group Holding Limited BABAAlibaba is a Chinese e-commerce cash cow funding the most ambitious vertically integrated AI cloud build in the country, and the equity is priced as if the e-commerce engine has stopped growing while the AI optionality is free. Back of Napkin Bunge Global S.A. BGBunge is one of the four "ABCD" global grain and oilseed processors (with ADM, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus), buying agricultural raw materials from farmers and crushing, refining, transporting, and selling them to food, feed, and biofuel customers worldwide, now expanded by the late-2025 close of the $34B Viterra merger that gave it a Canadian grain handling network plus enhanced South American origination footprint. Back of Napkin JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. JELDJELD-WEN manufactures doors and windows for residential and commercial construction in North America and Europe, with a market cap of $120M against $1.4B of net debt, an adjusted EBITDA margin that dropped to 0.9% in Q1 2026, and a December 2026 debt-maturity event that management has explicitly flagged as a priority to address. Back of Napkin Fortinet, Inc. FTNTFortinet builds the network security boxes (FortiGate firewalls) and the software that runs on them, plus an expanding SASE and security operations layer on top, monetized through hardware product sales and recurring service subscriptions. Back of Napkin The Mosaic Company MOSMosaic mines and produces phosphate (Florida rock plus Brazil) and potash (Saskatchewan plus Brazil), selling fertilizer through global agribusiness channels, with the rare-earth side bet of holding the largest US phosphate reserves at a time when phosphate is being reclassified as a critical mineral. Back of Napkin Post Holdings, Inc. POSTPost Holdings is a serial acquirer of food brands across cereal (Honey Bunches of Oats, Pebbles, Weetabix), foodservice eggs and potatoes (the largest US foodservice egg supplier), refrigerated retail (Bob Evans), and pet food, run as a portfolio of operating businesses with the explicit playbook of shrinking the share count instead of growing the topline. Back of Napkin O-I Glass, Inc. OIO-I Glass is one of the two largest container-glass manufacturers in the world (with Verallia), supplying glass bottles to beer, wine, spirits, and food customers across Americas and Europe, currently restructuring under a multi-year "Fit to Win" program while carrying 6x net-debt leverage. Back of Napkin Olin Corporation OLNOlin is the largest US producer of chlor-alkali (chlorine plus caustic soda plus EDC/PVC value chain) plus epoxy resins and Winchester branded ammunition, running the integrated salt-to-PVC chemistry with the energy advantage of its Gulf Coast production base. Back of Napkin West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. WSTWest Pharmaceutical Services makes the rubber stoppers, plungers, and seals that sit between every injectable drug and the human bloodstream, a single-source qualified component for most major biologics including GLP-1 injectables, hemophilia therapeutics, and biosimilars. Back of Napkin Greif, Inc. GEFGreif is the global leader in industrial packaging (steel drums, intermediate bulk containers, fiber drums, plastic jerricans, and closures) selling to chemical, food, ag, and lubricant customers, with a fresh strategic focus after divesting its containerboard business to PKG for $1.8B in August 2025. Back of Napkin Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. CLFCleveland-Cliffs is the only fully integrated flat-rolled steel producer in the United States, mining its own iron ore in Minnesota and Michigan and selling steel to the Detroit Three, the appliance OEMs, and the housing supply chain, leveraged at 3x EBITDA with cyclical earnings volatility that ranges from $3 of EPS at the peak to $3 of loss at the trough. Back of Napkin The AES Corporation AESAES is a global power producer running 32+ gigawatts of generation across the US, Latin America, and Asia, transformed during the 2020s into one of the largest pure-play renewables developers in the US with a record $41B construction backlog feeding into hyperscaler data center power contracts. Back of Napkin C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. CHRWC.H. Robinson is North America's largest freight brokerage, matching shippers with truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal capacity, with a global forwarding business on top; the model is asset-light, the moat is the relationship database, and the bet is whether the new operating playbook produces secular earnings growth across freight cycles. Back of Napkin Roper Technologies, Inc. ROPRoper Technologies is a serial acquirer of niche vertical software and medical product franchises, running 28 businesses across Application Software, Network Software, and Technology Enabled Products, with the playbook of buying high-margin recurring-revenue businesses and letting them compound under decentralized management. Back of Napkin