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Back of Napkin

Greif, Inc. GEF

Three-pass checkedFiled since 2026-07-29

Written 2026-05-19. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-07-29, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.

Greif is the global leader in industrial packaging (steel drums, intermediate bulk containers, fiber drums, plastic jerricans, and closures) selling to chemical, food, ag, and lubricant customers, with a fresh strategic focus after divesting its containerboard business to PKG for $1.8B in August 2025.

The setup is a pure-play industrial packaging primary, post-divestiture and post-deleveraging, at a 2.1x trailing leverage ratio waiting for the industrial cycle to inflect; management is candid that the demand inflection is "not on the horizon" while the equity has compressed enough to be priced for that view.

Key data

Sector / industryConsumer Cyclical / Packaging and Containers
FYE / countrySeptember 30 (changed from October in 2025) / US
Price / 52w range$61.32 / $54.04 to $77.14
Position vs MA13% above 52w low; 50d SMA $66.88, 200d SMA $66.04
Market cap / EV≈$2.83B / ≈$4.74B
Revenue (TTM, through Q2 FY26)≈$4.07B
EPS (TTM, GAAP, skewed by divestiture gain)≈$16.61
Beta0.83

GEF · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$48$59$70$81$92 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Greif is the global leader in industrial packaging: steel drums, intermediate bulk containers, fiber drums, plastic jerricans, and closures, sold to chemical, food, ag, and lubricant customers. The franchise was reshaped by divesting the containerboard business to Packaging Corporation of America for $1.8B all-cash on August 31, 2025, leaving a focused industrial packaging franchise (steel, plastic, and fiber drums plus IBCs plus closures) without the commoditized containerboard cyclicality, and renaming the Integrated Solutions segment "Innovative Closure Solutions" effective October 1, 2025.

What changed in Q2 FY26, reported April 28-29 for the quarter ended March 31: quarterly EPS of $0.22 came in light on persistent industrial demand softness. CEO commentary acknowledged the cycle directly, calling it "a multi-year period of industrial contraction with no compelling demand inflection identified on the horizon," unusually candid bottom-of-cycle language. The proceeds went largely to deleveraging, taking leverage to 2.1x trailing EBITDA.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

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