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Back of Napkin

Broadcom Inc. AVGO

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Broadcom's contracted future revenue went from $45.0B to $164.6B in a single quarter, on one custom artificial-intelligence chip contract.

Five weeks later it agreed to backstop up to $29B of that customer's lease obligations, in an arrangement with Apollo, and none of it is on the balance sheet.

AVGO · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$43$152$260$368$477 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Broadcom does two unrelated things well. It designs semiconductors: custom accelerators built to order for hyperscale cloud companies that want their own artificial-intelligence silicon rather than someone else's, plus the Ethernet switching chips that connect them, plus a long tail of broadband, wireless and storage parts. Separately it owns enterprise software, mostly VMware, sold to large companies on multi-year contracts at very high margins.

The second business exists to fund the first and to smooth the cycle. Hock Tan buys mature software franchises, raises prices, cuts costs, and collects the cash.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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