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Back of Napkin

Sandisk Corporation SNDK

Three-pass checkedFresh as companies report

Revenue over the same span went from $1.70B a quarter to $8.97B, and the shares from a low of $46.75 to $1,503.

SNDK · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$-142$483$1107$1732$2357 Feb '25Jun '25Sep '25Jan '26May '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Sandisk makes NAND flash, the memory that stores data when the power is off. It was spun out of Western Digital in February 2025 and now sells three things: enterprise solid-state drives into data centres, embedded and client storage into phones and laptops, and the retail cards and drives with the red logo.

NAND has always been the most violent commodity in semiconductors. Capacity takes two years and billions to build, demand moves in months, and the price is set at the margin by whoever is most desperate. What has happened here is that artificial intelligence infrastructure arrived while the industry was still cutting capital spending from the last downturn.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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