DGBack of Napkin
Dollar General Corporation DG
Dollar General's comparable sales have printed 2.8%, 2.5% and 2.0%, and its gross margin expansion has printed 137, 107 and 65 basis points.
Both are decelerating at once, which is what the third year of a recovery looks like.
DG · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Twenty-one thousand and fifty-five small boxes, mostly in towns with no other grocery, selling the paper towels, the shampoo, the dog food and the frozen dinner at prices that are usually under ten dollars. About four fifths of it is consumables, which brings the customer back weekly and earns very little per item. The rest is seasonal goods, home and apparel, which earns the margin.
The customer is often on a fixed income and shops the week rather than the month. That is the strength, because the trip does not stop when the economy softens, and it is the constraint, because there is no room to take price when the customer is counting. Fifteen minutes to the nearest Walmart is the whole moat.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04How it fails or surprises you
- 05The shape of the payoff
- 06Closing thoughts
- 07Methodology
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