PTBack of Napkin
PTC Inc. PTC
Written 2026-07-07. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-07-31, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.
You are paying about 16 times forward earnings and 6.5 times recurring revenue for a mission-critical engineering-software franchise that grew constant-currency ARR 8.5% last quarter and threw off roughly $928M of trailing free cash flow, a compounder that carried software-multiple valuations for a decade and now sits a hair above its 52-week low.
The asymmetry is whether the de-rate from about $220 to $126 marks a durable franchise going on sale or the market correctly pricing a structural slowdown in discrete-manufacturing software; the finished deleveraging and a freshly resumed $2B buyback argue the former, while ARR growth slipping into the high-single-digits is the bear's exhibit.
Key data
PTC · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
PTC sells the software that engineers and manufacturers use to design products and run the data behind them: Creo for computer-aided design (CAD), Windchill for product lifecycle management (PLM), Codebeamer for application lifecycle management (ALM) in safety-critical software, and the cloud-native pair Onshape and Arena for smaller and distributed teams. The buyers are discrete manufacturers in automotive, aerospace and defense, industrial equipment, and medical devices, where a PLM backbone becomes the system of record for every part, revision, and bill of materials, so switching costs are steep and renewals are near-automatic. The engine is the Creo-plus-Windchill core, with Windchill the single largest product line; together this digital-thread pair carries the majority of the $2.388B ARR, and management now frames AI as a demand pull because agentic design and search only work on a clean product-data foundation that Windchill provides.
What the financials do not show is that PTC just reshaped its portfolio: it divested the ThingWorx and Kepware factory-connectivity and IoT assets, the growth story that never scaled, and booked a large one-time gain doing so in the quarter ended March 2026. Stripping those divested lines, constant-currency ARR grew 9.0% rather than the reported 8.4% to 8.5%, which matters because the headline GAAP revenue and earnings are now noisy in both directions. The leading indicator to watch is net new ARR, guided to $40M to $55M for the September quarter, since reported revenue is lumpy under license-recognition timing while ARR is the truer read on the installed base.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04The linchpins
- 05Closing
- 06Methodology
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