BID TerminalOpen complete report
Research library Software & Internet

Back of Napkin

PTC Inc. PTC

Three-pass checkedFiled since 2026-07-31

Written 2026-07-07. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-07-31, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.

You are paying about 16 times forward earnings and 6.5 times recurring revenue for a mission-critical engineering-software franchise that grew constant-currency ARR 8.5% last quarter and threw off roughly $928M of trailing free cash flow, a compounder that carried software-multiple valuations for a decade and now sits a hair above its 52-week low.

The asymmetry is whether the de-rate from about $220 to $126 marks a durable franchise going on sale or the market correctly pricing a structural slowdown in discrete-manufacturing software; the finished deleveraging and a freshly resumed $2B buyback argue the former, while ARR growth slipping into the high-single-digits is the bear's exhibit.

Key data

ItemValue
Sector / FYE / countryIndustrial engineering software; FY ends Sep 30; US
Price / 52-week range$125.91; $108.50 to $219.69 (near low)
Market cap / EV≈$14.5B / ≈$15.5B
TTM revenue / FCF≈$3.0B / ≈$928M
ARR (Q2 FY26)$2.388B, +8.5% constant currency
FCF margin (TTM)≈31%
Forward P/E (FY26E / FY27E)≈15.7x / ≈14.6x consensus
EV / ARR≈6.5x
Net debt / leverage≈$1.19B / 0.54x EBITDA
SBC (% of revenue)≈7.9%

PTC · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$106$135$164$194$223 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

PTC sells the software that engineers and manufacturers use to design products and run the data behind them: Creo for computer-aided design (CAD), Windchill for product lifecycle management (PLM), Codebeamer for application lifecycle management (ALM) in safety-critical software, and the cloud-native pair Onshape and Arena for smaller and distributed teams. The buyers are discrete manufacturers in automotive, aerospace and defense, industrial equipment, and medical devices, where a PLM backbone becomes the system of record for every part, revision, and bill of materials, so switching costs are steep and renewals are near-automatic. The engine is the Creo-plus-Windchill core, with Windchill the single largest product line; together this digital-thread pair carries the majority of the $2.388B ARR, and management now frames AI as a demand pull because agentic design and search only work on a clean product-data foundation that Windchill provides.

What the financials do not show is that PTC just reshaped its portfolio: it divested the ThingWorx and Kepware factory-connectivity and IoT assets, the growth story that never scaled, and booked a large one-time gain doing so in the quarter ended March 2026. Stripping those divested lines, constant-currency ARR grew 9.0% rather than the reported 8.4% to 8.5%, which matters because the headline GAAP revenue and earnings are now noisy in both directions. The leading indicator to watch is net new ARR, guided to $40M to $55M for the September quarter, since reported revenue is lumpy under license-recognition timing while ARR is the truer read on the installed base.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

Continue with PTC

Get the complete Back of Napkin free.

Choose this as your free complete report. No card required.

Read the complete report