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Back of Napkin

Clear Secure, Inc. YOU

Three-pass checkedFiled since 2026-08-05

Written 2026-06-15. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-08-05, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.

You're paying about 5.3 times revenue and roughly 19 times EBITDA, near $5.2 billion enterprise value, for the CLEAR identity network: a debt-free, FCF-rich subscription business whose airport-security membership funds an expansion into broader identity verification.

The asymmetry is whether the 8-million-member airport franchise converts into a much larger identity platform while the cash engine keeps compounding; this is a profitable growth story at a fair price, gated on whether identity beyond travel becomes a real revenue leg before the growth multiple normalizes.

Key data

Sector / industryTechnology / Application Software (identity verification)
FYE / countryDecember / US
Price / 52w range$51.66 / $24.06 to $62.73
Position vs MA50d SMA $55.13, 200d SMA $41.45
Market cap / EV≈$5.2B / ≈$5.0B
Revenue (FY25)≈$900.8M, +17%
EPS (FY25, GAAP diluted)$1.12
Forward P/E≈31x FY26E, ≈20x FY27E
Net cash / debt≈$800M cash and investments, zero debt
Beta1.06

YOU · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$13$26$38$51$64 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

CLEAR sells identity verification as a network. The cash engine is CLEAR Plus, the roughly $199-a-year airport subscription that speeds members through security lanes, generating high-retention recurring revenue; it is the slice doing most of the work today, the bulk of the $900.8M revenue base. Around it the company is layering TSA PreCheck enrollment, Reserve virtual queuing, eGates for a faster biometric airport experience, and the business-to-business identity products CLEAR1 and Atlas Certified, which verify people and credentials for enterprises. The travel subscription is the engine; the non-travel identity platform is the optionality.

The fact the financials do not surface is the platform bet against the travel dependence. CLEAR Plus is fundamentally a travel-convenience subscription, exposed to air-travel volumes and to the partnership terms with the Transportation Security Administration that govern airport access. The case for re-rating rests on the base of verified members, roughly 41 million total with about 8 million paying, extending into healthcare, finance, events, and enterprise identity, markets far larger than security lanes; the case against is that the non-travel platform is still early and the core remains a travel business. What changed in the most recent quarter, Q1 FY2026 reported May 6, is continued momentum: revenue $253.0M up about 20% year over year, bookings outpacing revenue, and the business-to-business identity line compounding fast off a small base.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

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