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Back of Napkin

Figma, Inc. FIG

Three-pass checkedFresh as companies report

Figma has accelerated revenue growth three quarters running, 48% in the latest, and the stock has fallen 63% from its post-IPO high anyway, because the sellers are the people who built it.

The setup turns on a race between fundamentals and float: the business is compounding faster than almost any software company its size while lockups release tens of millions of shares into every rally.

FIG · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$9$39$70$100$130 Aug '25Oct '25Jan '26Mar '26Jun '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Figma is where software gets designed: a browser-based canvas where product teams draw, prototype and now ship interfaces, with the collaboration model, everyone in the same file, that killed the desktop tools before it. The wedge became a platform: 15,964 customers pay over $10K a year, up 34%, and the newer act is AI, credits that customers buy so agents can generate and edit designs, monetized for the first full quarter. Net dollar retention of 136% means last year's customers spend a third more this year without a single new logo. The moat is the multiplayer file itself, the shared artifact a team cannot easily leave, which is why Adobe once offered $20B for it and paid a $1.0B breakup fee walking away.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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