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Back of Napkin

Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. BBW

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You are paying about $490M, roughly ten times earnings, for a mall retailer that sells children a stuffed animal they build themselves, and whose sales just went from growing 12% to shrinking.

Three years of net income drawn with a ruler is either a coiled spring or a ceiling, and the deceleration that arrived this year argues it is a ceiling.

BBW · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$18$33$48$63$78 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

A child walks into a mall store, picks an unstuffed bear, watches it filled, gives it a heart, names it, dresses it and leaves with a birth certificate. The product is the afternoon; the bear is the receipt. That is why a $529.8M revenue year carries a 55.8% gross margin, economics no shelf toy earns. On top sit a web and wholesale layer, international franchising, and an adult-gifting line of Valentine's and collector product that is a larger share of the business than most people assume. The terminal question no filing answers is mall traffic, because the store is the product and the store lives where the foot traffic goes.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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