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Back of Napkin

Payoneer Global Inc. PAYO

Three-pass checkedFiled since 2026-08-06

Written 2026-07-27. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-08-06, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.

Payoneer at $7.12 is no longer a standalone fundamentals story: on June 12, 2026 it agreed to be acquired by Nuvei for $7.40 per share in cash, roughly $2.75B of equity value, and the stock now sits 3.9% below the deal price with a close guided to mid-2027.

You're paying for a roughly 4% annualized merger spread with deal-break downside to the $6.75 unaffected price (and an April low of $4.08); what you're getting free is the chance that the fair-price suits or a rival bidder re-cut a price that values the business at about 8.6x guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA.

Key data

ItemValue
Sector / listingCross-border B2B payments, NASDAQ, FYE Dec
Price$7.12 (52w range $4.08 to $7.665)
Pending deal$7.40 cash from Nuvei, ~mid-2027 close
Market cap$2.41B
Enterprise value$2.15B
Net cash (Q1 2026)$259M, excludes customer funds
Revenue, TTM through Q1 2026$1.07B
Diluted EPS, TTM through Q1 2026$0.20
P/E, TTM36x
Next earningsAug 5, 2026 (Q2)

PAYO · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$4$6$8$10$11 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Payoneer sells the financial plumbing for small businesses that earn money across borders: a seller in Shenzhen, Manila, or São Paulo gets paid by Amazon, Walmart, Upwork, or a foreign buyer into a Payoneer receiving account, holds balances in multiple currencies, pays suppliers and contractors, and increasingly runs accounts payable, cards, and workforce payments through the same stack. The franchise serves roughly two million customers across 190-plus countries and territories. The engine is the marketplace-seller receiving franchise monetized two ways: a take rate on more than $22B of quarterly volume, and interest earned on the customer float, which stood near $7.3B at Q1 2026 against a matching liability (customer money, not Payoneer's). That float is the profit engine: interest income was $259M in FY2024, about 27% of revenue, and the 2026 guide embeds roughly $200M, which is most of the $285M to $295M adjusted EBITDA guide. The growth engine is B2B accounts-payable and receivable volume, up 44% in Q1 2026, per the company's May 7 release.

What the financials don't show: the seller base skews heavily toward China-linked cross-border e-commerce, which is why tariff headlines move this stock, and the float income is a rate bet that falls as central banks cut. The moat, in one sentence, is a licensed regulatory network plus deep marketplace integrations assembled over two decades; whether it survives cheaper stablecoin rails is the durability question, and that audit lives elsewhere. Payoneer's answer has been to run at the threat: a Q1 2026 partnership with Bridge (Stripe's stablecoin infrastructure arm) to let customers hold and send digital assets, and a February 24, 2026 application to the OCC for a national trust bank charter (PAYO Digital Bank, N.A.) that would issue a PAYO-USD stablecoin and custody reserves. Then, before any of it resolved, the board sold the company: Nuvei, the Advent-backed private payments processor, signed at $7.40 on June 12, a 10% premium to the prior close, with Ademi LLP and others now investigating whether that price is fair.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

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