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Back of Napkin

Ford Motor Company F

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Ford lost $8.18B last year on $17.36B of write-offs, most of it admitting that its electric vehicle programmes were worth far less than it had spent on them.

Its automotive net cash position has since turned negative, from $7.7B to minus $0.3B in six months.

F · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$9$11$13$16$18 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Ford sells vehicles through three segments and finances them through a fourth. Ford Blue is the petrol and hybrid business, mostly trucks. Ford Pro sells to commercial fleets and increasingly sells them software and service alongside, which is the highest-margin thing the company does. Ford Model e is electric vehicles. Ford Credit lends to buyers and dealers.

Pro is the good business. Blue is the cash business. Model e has been the problem.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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