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Back of Napkin

NVR, Inc. NVR

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NVR's new orders turned positive after four quarters of decline, up 7% and then 9%, and its gross margin fell from 21.9% to 19.2% over the same stretch.

It is selling more houses for less profit each, which is what a builder does when affordability breaks.

NVR · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$5019$6336$7653$8971$10288 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

NVR builds houses under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes and Heartland brands across 37 metropolitan areas, and lends the buyers their mortgages through a subsidiary. The distinguishing feature is that it does not own land. It options lots from developers and only buys when it has a signed contract, which means it carries almost no land inventory and almost no debt.

That structure is why NVR survived the last housing collapse largely intact while builders holding land did not.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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