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Back of Napkin

Tractor Supply Company TSCO

Three-pass checkedFiled since 2026-08-06

Written 2026-07-15. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-08-06, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.

You're paying 14.8x forward earnings, the cheapest Tractor Supply has been in more than a decade, for a 2,641-store rural franchise that has grown revenue every year since 2015 and retired 22% of its share count along the way.

The asymmetry is whether a four-year, 80-basis-point operating-margin slide on flat traffic is a consumer air-pocket on a durable needs-based retailer or the start of a permanently lower earnings base; the stock is priced for the second while management guides to the first.

Key data

Sector / industryConsumer discretionary, rural retail
FYE / countryLast Saturday of December, US
Price$30.95
52-week range$28.36 to $63.99
Market cap$16.2B
Enterprise value$22.4B
Revenue, TTM through Q1 2026$15.65B
Diluted EPS, TTM through Q1 2026$2.05
Forward P/E (FY2026E)14.8x
Net debt excl. leases$1.57B (0.8x FY2025 EBITDA)

TSCO · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$27$36$46$55$64 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Tractor Supply sells livestock and pet feed, bedding, hardware, workwear, trailers, mowers and seasonal goods to recreational farmers, ranchers, rural homeowners and pet owners. As of March 28, 2026 it operated 2,435 Tractor Supply stores across 49 states plus 206 Petsense by Tractor Supply pet-specialty stores, 2,641 in all, and it owns Allivet, an online animal pharmacy bought for $140.6M in 2025. The mix leans on what the company calls consumable, usable and edible goods: feed, bird seed, propane, lubricants, fertilizer, pest control, things a customer with animals and acreage rebuys on a schedule rather than a whim. That is what makes this less cyclical than a typical discretionary retailer. The slice doing most of the work is the loyalty base: Neighbor's Club has more than 38 million members and accounts for roughly 80% of Tractor Supply sales and 85% of Petsense sales, per company disclosure. Owned brands plus exclusive product categories were about 30% of FY2025 sales, against 29% in each of the two prior years.

What the financials do not show is that this customer runs two wallets. The C.U.E. wallet is non-negotiable: animals eat whether or not the household feels confident. The big-ticket wallet, trailers and mowers and generators, is weather-driven and confidence-driven, and it can go quiet for years without the franchise breaking. That split is why comps can sit near zero while the store base stays healthy. What changed in the last two quarters is the composition, not the headline. FY2025 comps of +1.2% were traffic-led, with transactions up 1.4% and ticket down 0.2%. Q1 2026 comps of +0.5% inverted that: ticket up 1.6%, transactions down 1.0%. Fewer customers spending more is the weaker of the two shapes. Companion animal, a C.U.E. category that should be defensive, trailed the company average. SG&A deleveraged 70 basis points to 29.7% of sales on an accelerated opening cadence of 40 stores versus 15 a year earlier, and operating income fell 6.3% to $233.4M.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

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