CGBack of Napkin
Cognex Corporation CGNX
Written 2026-06-15. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-08-06, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.
You are paying roughly 11 times revenue and 44 times this year's earnings, about $11 billion near a 52-week high after more than doubling off the low, for the leading independent machine-vision company two quarters into a cyclical recovery with operating margin re-expanding hard.
The asymmetry is whether a secular automation tailwind plus a structural cost program turn a capex-cyclical into a durable high-margin compounder, or whether a premium multiple meets a second-half stall that management itself is flagging.
Key data
CGNX · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Cognex makes machine-vision systems, the cameras, sensors, and software that let machines locate, identify, inspect, measure, and guide parts in manufacturing and logistics. The product lines are In-Sight vision systems, VisionPro and deep-learning software, and DataMan barcode readers, sold into logistics and warehouse automation, consumer-electronics manufacturing, automotive including EV and battery lines, semiconductor, and life sciences. The engine is the standard product franchise: standard products and services were $880M of FY25 revenue, about 89% of the total, with customer-specific solutions the remaining 11%. Geography is balanced, the Americas at 41% of revenue, Europe 25%, Other Asia 18%, and Greater China 16%, the China line still below its 2022 peak. The one-line moat is an installed base plus a vision-software library that makes Cognex the default specifier on factory lines, but Keyence, the far larger and higher-margin Japanese sensor-and-vision rival, is the quality benchmark that caps the share story.
The thing the financials do not show is where in the capital cycle this sits. Machine-vision demand tracks the manufacturing and automation capex cycle, which troughed in 2023 and 2024 and is now recovering. Q1 2026 revenue was $268.4M, up 24% on Q1 2025's $216.0M, broad-based across logistics, electronics, and automotive. Layered on the cycle is a cost-reduction program targeting $35M to $40M of annualized savings by the end of 2026, plus new edge-AI vision products, the In-Sight 6900 and 3900, pushing deep learning to the camera. What changed: operating margin in Q1 2026 reached 22.3% against 12.1% a year earlier, the latest in a run of margin gains, even as management flagged caution on the second half citing macro, energy, and geopolitical risk.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04The linchpins
- 05Closing
- 06Methodology
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