The Mosaic Company MOS

The business

Mosaic mines and produces phosphate (Florida rock plus Brazil) and potash (Saskatchewan plus Brazil), selling fertilizer through global agribusiness channels. The longer-dated optionality is its position in irreplaceable phosphate reserves, the largest in the US, at a time when phosphate is being reclassified as a critical mineral.

What changed in Q1 2026, reported May 11: revenue $3.0B beat the $2.89B consensus by 3.8%, but the company posted a GAAP net loss of $258M, $(0.81) diluted EPS, and adjusted EPS of $0.05 against a $0.23 consensus, a 79% miss, on adjusted EBITDA of $416M. The volume story was strong, with phosphate sales of 1.9 million tons (the highest in five years) as deferred demand returned and three of four US facilities ran at improved utilization, and potash fundamentals stayed balanced. The margin story was destroyed by cost: the Persian Gulf conflict drove a rapid surge in sulfur and ammonia prices (both required inputs for phosphate), compressing stripping margins below variable cost on marginal tonnes. Management responded with the classic commodity playbook: temporary production curtailments at Bartow and Louisiana (roughly half of each facility's capacity), idled SSP production at Araxá and Patrocínio in Brazil, completed the sale of the Carlsbad potash mine, cut FY26 capex guidance by $250M to $1.25B, and initiated a workforce reduction targeting $50M in annualized savings. The cost is forgone volume; the benefit is preserved balance sheet and disciplined supply.