PYBack of Napkin
PayPal Holdings, Inc. PYPL
PayPal's payment volume growth accelerated from 3% to 10% over six quarters and its operating income went nowhere.
The transaction margin fell in five of those six quarters, from 47.7% to 44.9%, which is exactly where the growth went.
PYPL · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
PayPal is the yellow button at checkout and the thing your neighbour uses to pay you back. Branded checkout is the profitable half: the consumer already has an account, the merchant pays a full rate, and nobody has to enter a card number. Braintree is the unbranded half, processing card payments for large merchants who put their own name on the page, at a fraction of the margin.
That distinction is the whole company. Braintree volume is cheap to win and thin to keep, branded volume is the franchise. Four hundred and thirty-nine million active accounts is an enormous installed base and it has not grown in four quarters.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04How it fails or surprises you
- 05The shape of the payoff
- 06Closing thoughts
- 07Methodology
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