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Back of Napkin

PayPal Holdings, Inc. PYPL

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PayPal's payment volume growth accelerated from 3% to 10% over six quarters and its operating income went nowhere.

The transaction margin fell in five of those six quarters, from 47.7% to 44.9%, which is exactly where the growth went.

PYPL · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$36$51$66$81$96 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

PayPal is the yellow button at checkout and the thing your neighbour uses to pay you back. Branded checkout is the profitable half: the consumer already has an account, the merchant pays a full rate, and nobody has to enter a card number. Braintree is the unbranded half, processing card payments for large merchants who put their own name on the page, at a fraction of the margin.

That distinction is the whole company. Braintree volume is cheap to win and thin to keep, branded volume is the franchise. Four hundred and thirty-nine million active accounts is an enormous installed base and it has not grown in four quarters.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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