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Research library Payments & Fintech

Back of Napkin

Visa Inc. V

Three-pass checkedFresh as companies report

Visa's operating expenses grew 19% last quarter against revenue of 14%, and marketing alone grew 54%.

The shares sit at their 52-week high while the first sustained spending increase in years runs through the income statement.

V · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$217$261$306$350$395 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Visa does not lend anyone money and does not issue anyone a card. It runs the wires. When a card is presented anywhere on earth, Visa authorises the transaction, clears it and settles it between the merchant's bank and the cardholder's bank, and takes a few basis points for doing so.

That is the best model in finance because the cost of the next transaction is almost zero while volume compounds with global consumption, card penetration and inflation at once. There are two of these networks and no third. What Visa actually sells is the certainty that a card works in a shop in a country neither party has been to.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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