WUBack of Napkin
The Western Union Company WU
At $8.88 you're paying about 5.1x FY2026 consensus earnings for a business that returned roughly 20% of its current market cap to shareholders in FY2025 dividends and buybacks; the melt is what you're being paid to hold.
Revenue has fallen four straight years, adjusted EPS dropped 39% in Q1 2026, and the thin out-year consensus already models decline resuming after the Intermex bump; the stablecoin option (USDPT, live on Solana since May) rides along free.
Key data
WU · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Western Union moves money across borders for people, not companies: a worker in Dallas or Dubai sends a few hundred dollars home to family in Mexico, the Philippines, or Nigeria, and WU takes a fee of a few percent. The engine is the Consumer Money Transfer franchise built on roughly 400,000 retail agent locations across 200-plus countries, still weighted toward cash handed over a counter; a growing digital business (app and web) sits alongside it, plus a small Consumer Services segment (bill pay, retail FX, prepaid). The cash-corridor franchise carries nearly all the economics today, and it is the part in structural decline as remittances shift to app-first competitors and, at the margin, stablecoin rails.
What the financials don't show: WU's customers are migrant workers, so volumes track immigration policy and enforcement, not GDP. Two policy shocks hit at once in 2026: tighter US immigration enforcement and the 1% US excise tax on cash-funded remittances that took effect in January under the 2025 tax law, both leaning on the US-to-Latin-America corridor that is WU's largest. Against that, management is buying Intermex (IMXI, ≈$500M cash), the strongest US-to-Mexico specialist, and launched USDPT, a dollar stablecoin issued by Anchorage Digital Bank on Solana, in early May 2026, with a consumer spend product planned for 40-plus countries this year.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04The linchpins
- 05Closing
- 06Methodology
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