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Back of Napkin

Green Dot Corporation GDOT

Three-pass checkedFiled since 2026-08-10

Written 2026-06-15. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-08-10, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.

You are paying $12.82 for a stock sitting on $1.36B of net cash against a $727M market cap, mid-way through a $1.1B breakup that pays $8.11 in guaranteed cash plus 0.2215 shares of a newly public CommerceOne-Green Dot Bank holding company per share.

The asymmetry is not the banking-as-a-service franchise anymore; it is the merger-arb spread between today's price and an implied take-out range of roughly $14.23 to $19.18, set against deal-close risk and the unknown trading value of the new bank stub.

Key data

Sector / industryFinancial Services / Credit Services (BaaS, prepaid, bank holding co)
FYE / countryDecember / US
Price / 52w range$12.82 / $9.31 to $15.41
Market cap / EV≈$727M / ≈-$650M (deep net cash)
Net cash≈$1.36B (cash $1.42B less $65M debt)
Revenue (TTM)≈$2.18B
EPS (FY25, GAAP)-$1.79 (restructuring-distorted)
EPS (Q1 2026, GAAP diluted)$0.93 (vs $0.63 est)
Cash consideration per share$8.11 (guaranteed at close)
Stock consideration per share0.2215 new pubco shares ($6.12 to $11.07 implied)

GDOT · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$6$10$13$16$19 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Green Dot is a financial-technology and bank-holding company running three segments: Consumer Services (legacy prepaid debit and consumer checking, mostly Walmart MoneyCard and the Green Dot brand), Business-to-Business Solutions (white-label banking-as-a-service for Apple Cash, Uber, Stash and other fintech partners), and Money Movement Services (the retail cash-load network plus tax-refund processing). The engine has flipped over the last two years: Consumer Services is in structural decline as retail prepaid usage compresses, while B2B and Money Movement carry the growth. The slice doing most of the work now is B2B plus Money Movement, which together drove the Q1 2026 print, with B2B up roughly 22% and Money Movement up roughly 19% against Consumer Services down high-single-digits.

The qualitative fact the financials do not show is that this is a company being dismantled and sold. In November 2025 Green Dot agreed to be split: the non-bank fintech operations go to Smith Ventures for about $690M cash, and the bank assets fold into CommerceOne Financial to form a new, publicly traded bank-holding company combining CommerceOne Bank and Green Dot Bank. The S-4 was declared effective May 8, 2026, proxy and prospectus mailing began on or about May 15, and the transactions are targeted to close in Q2 2026. The $12.82 price is the merger-arb spread on a deal paying $8.11 cash plus 0.2215 of the new pubco's stock per share. Every number below matters only to the extent it supports deal certainty and the value of that stub.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

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