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Back of Napkin

VICI Properties Inc. VICI

Three-pass checkedFiled since 2026-07-29

Written 2026-07-08. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-07-29, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.

You are paying about 10.6x forward AFFO and a 6.9% dividend yield to own the landlord of Caesars Palace, the Venetian, MGM Grand and Mandalay Bay, irreplaceable Strip real estate that has paid rent at 100% occupancy straight through a pandemic.

The asymmetry is a covered, growing yield backed by 40-year triple-net leases with CPI escalators, marked at a 52-week low because higher-for-longer rates lifted VICI's cost of capital toward its acquisition cap rates and compressed the external-growth spread that drives the compounding.

Key data

ItemValue
Sector / structureExperiential net-lease REIT (gaming + non-gaming), FYE Dec, US
Price / 52w range$26.14 vs $26.08 to $34.01 (at the low)
Market cap / EV≈$27.9B / ≈$45.1B
FY2025 revenue / GAAP EPS$4.01B / $2.61
FY2026E AFFO per share$2.44 to $2.47 (guidance)
Dividend / yield / AFFO payout$1.80 annualized / 6.9% / ≈73%
Net debt / adjusted EBITDA5.0x (target 5.0x to 5.5x), investment grade
Top-tenant concentrationCaesars ≈39% + MGM ≈35% of rent (≈74% combined)
Occupancy / weighted lease term100% / ≈40.7 years

VICI · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$25$28$30$32$35 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

VICI is a triple-net-lease REIT that owns the real estate under many of the most recognizable casinos in America and rents it back to the operators on very long contracts. The portfolio is anchored by the Las Vegas Strip (Caesars Palace, the Venetian, MGM Grand, Mandalay Bay, the Cosmopolitan) plus a regional gaming book, and the tenant collects all the gaming revenue while VICI collects rent. The engine is tenant concentration by design: Caesars supplies roughly 39% of annualized rent and MGM Resorts roughly 35%, so those two names carry about 74% of the rent roll, on corporate-guaranteed master leases with initial terms running 15 to 40-plus years and renewal options that push weighted duration to about 40.7 years. Occupancy is 100% and has never been otherwise. Beyond gaming, VICI has built a non-gaming experiential arm through sale-leasebacks and financing to Bowlero (bowling), Great Wolf Lodge, Chelsea Piers and Cabot golf, so the "casino REIT" label understates the reach.

The qualitative fact the financials do not show is the quality of the lease itself. These are master leases: the tenant pays taxes, insurance and maintenance, the obligation is cross-defaulted and corporate-guaranteed, and rent coverage sits around 1.44x, meaning the operator's property-level cash flow covers the rent check with a comfortable margin even in a soft year. The Strip assets are effectively irreplaceable, no one is building another Caesars Palace footprint, which is what lets VICI write 40-year leases and expect to be paid. The part that matters most to the forward math is inflation protection: about 42% of the 2025 rent roll escalates with CPI (subject to caps), and that CPI-linked share is contractually set to climb toward 90% by 2035, with 15 of 17 leases carrying a CPI component for some part of their life. The rest escalates on fixed bumps of roughly 1% to 2%. The single-industry (gaming) exposure and the two-tenant concentration are the structural risk that sits underneath all of it.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

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