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Freeport-McMoRan Inc. FCX

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A mud rush shut most of Grasberg in September and Indonesian copper production fell from 429 million pounds a quarter to 49.

Freeport's realised copper price rose every quarter through it, from $4.44 to $6.17 a pound, and the shares are at their 52-week high.

FCX · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$25$39$53$67$80 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Freeport digs copper. Open pits in Arizona and Peru, and Grasberg in Papua, which is the largest gold mine on earth and among the largest copper mines, sitting under a mountain in one of the hardest places to operate anywhere. Copper is the revenue, gold is the by-product that makes Grasberg extraordinary, molybdenum is the rounding error.

Nothing about this is a differentiated product. A pound of copper is a pound of copper. The business is orebody quality, unit cash cost, and whether the government of the country you are in still wants you there. Freeport's licence at Grasberg currently expires in 2041.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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