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Back of Napkin

Sun Communities, Inc. SUI

Three-pass checkedFiled since 2026-07-28

Written 2026-06-15. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-07-28, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.

You're paying about 17.8 times an estimated 2026 Core FFO near $6.97 for a manufactured-housing and RV REIT that, over the past year, sold its marina business for $5.65 billion, repaid roughly $3.6 billion of debt, cut net debt to about $1.2 billion, and turned the buyback on.

The asymmetry is whether a refreshed board and a first-full-year CEO finally convert the mid-single-digit same-property NOI growth this land has produced for years into Core FFO per share growth, after a stretch where dealmaking and dilution left per-share FFO flat to down; this is a re-rating-plus-yield setup, not a moonshot.

Key data

Sector / industryReal Estate / REIT, residential (MH and RV)
FYE / countryDecember / US (Southfield, MI)
Price / 52w range$124.41 / $115.53 to $137.85
Position vs MA50d SMA $126.00, 200d SMA $127.00
Market cap / EV≈$15.3B / ≈$16.7B
2026E Core FFO / share≈$6.97 (guide midpoint)
Price / 2026E Core FFO≈17.8x
Dividend / yield$4.24 annual / ≈3.4%
Net debt≈$1.2B, post Safe Harbor sale
Beta0.79

SUI · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$101$114$126$139$151 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Sun owns and operates manufactured-housing (MH) communities and RV resorts across the US, Canada, and the UK, having exited the marina business in 2025. The engine is the MH portfolio: residents own the home and pay rent on the land, turnover is low, maintenance capital is light, and lot rents have climbed mid-single-digits for years. The slice doing most of the work is manufactured housing, the largest and most stable share of property NOI and the source of the durable rent growth; RV resorts are the second leg, more seasonal and transient-exposed, and the UK holiday-park business is smallest and most cyclical. Combined same-property NOI grew about 5.5% in 2025, which is the quiet point: the assets compound.

The fact the financials do not show, and the one the thesis turns on, is the capital-allocation reset. Under long-tenured prior leadership Sun ran a debt-funded global acquisition spree, buying Safe Harbor Marinas and UK holiday parks, that bloated the balance sheet and drew activist pressure from Land and Buildings. In 2025 the company reversed: it sold Safe Harbor for $5.65 billion at roughly 21 times FFO, repaid about $3.6 billion of debt, repurchased $539 million of stock, refreshed the board, and ran its first full year under CEO Charles Young. What changed concretely is on the balance sheet: total debt fell to about $1.8 billion and net debt to roughly $1.2 billion at year-end 2025, from a balance sheet carrying more than $7 billion of debt a year earlier. The moat is the land itself, since new MH communities are almost never permitted; whether that moat finally shows up in per-share numbers is the open question, not whether it exists.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

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