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Back of Napkin

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. HCC

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Everyone reads Warrior Met as a bet on steelmaking coal prices. Coal prices went up 6% over the last year. Warrior's tonnage went up 65%.

The mine that did it opened eight months early, cost $1.03B, and the company says the spending is finished.

HCC · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$32$52$73$93$114 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Warrior Met digs premium low-volatile hard coking coal out of three underground longwall mines in Alabama and ships it to steel mills, mostly outside the United States. This is not the coal that gets burned for power. It is the coal that gets baked into coke and fed into a blast furnace, and there is no substitute for it in that process at industrial scale. Pricing follows a quarterly index rather than negotiation, so the company controls volume and cost and takes whatever the market gives on price.

The third mine, Blue Creek, is the reason the numbers changed.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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