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GE Vernova Inc. GEV

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GE Vernova booked $24.2B of orders in a quarter, orders up 88%, against $11.1B of revenue, and its gas-turbine production is effectively sold out into the next decade.

The setup turns on the gap between the backlog and the income statement: a $176B order book argues for years of growth, while a $254B market cap on a 5.8% net margin argues the market has already spent most of it.

GEV · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$41$338$636$934$1231 Mar '24Sep '24Mar '25Sep '25Mar '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

GE Vernova is the electricity third of the old General Electric: gas turbines, grid equipment, and wind. The world discovered in 2024 that data centers, electrification and reshoring all need power at once, and heavy electrical equipment takes years to build. So the order book exploded, gas equipment reservations grew from 100 to 116 gigawatts in a quarter with 125 targeted by year-end, electrification equipment backlog is up 69%, and customers now pay deposits for delivery slots in the 2030s. The moat is the installed fleet, thousands of turbines only the manufacturer can service profitably for decades, plus delivery capability at a scale only Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi share.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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