REBack of Napkin
Remitly Global, Inc. RELY
Written 2026-07-27. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-08-05, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.
Remitly at $24.13 is priced at roughly 38x FY2026E consensus EPS and about 12x EV to guided FY2026 adjusted EBITDA for a business that just grew send volume 37%, revenue 25%, and swung net income up 332% in a single quarter, with $610M of net cash.
You're paying a full growth multiple for the profit inflection the market already found (the stock is up 78% in six months); what you're getting cheaper is the terminal-value debate, because the stablecoin fear that capped this stock for two years has not been settled, only postponed.
Key data
RELY · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Remitly sells cross-border money transfers through a mobile app: an immigrant working in the US, Canada, the UK, or the UAE sends money home to family in Mexico, the Philippines, India, or roughly 170 other receive countries, and Remitly earns a fee plus a foreign-exchange spread on each transaction. The engine is the core consumer remittance franchise, which is effectively all of revenue today: $74.9B of send volume in FY2025, up 37%, monetized at roughly a 2.2% blended take rate. New lines (Remitly Business for small-business payouts, now live in the US, UK, and Canada, and a multi-currency Remitly Wallet) are real products but immaterial to current revenue. The moat, in one sentence, is a licensed last-mile disbursement network (bank accounts, mobile wallets, cash pickup) plus compliance infrastructure spanning 170+ receive countries that took a decade to assemble; whether it survives stablecoin rails is the durability question, and that audit belongs elsewhere.
What the financials don't show: the customer is a repeat-use worker sending a few hundred dollars several times a month, so revenue behaves like a subscription with volume growth layered on, and the business is seasonal enough that Remitly drew $155M on its revolver at year-end 2025 and repaid it in Q1. Two things changed in the last two quarters that matter to the math. First, a founder-to-operator handoff: Sebastian Gunningham (ex-Amazon S-team, ex-Santander Openbank) took over as CEO on February 19, 2026, with co-founder Matt Oppenheimer moving to Chairman after 15 years. Second, volume growth (+37%) is running about 12 points ahead of revenue growth (+25%), which is the single most important spread in the model: bulls read it as mix shift toward high-value senders, bears read it as the leading edge of take-rate compression.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04The linchpins
- 05Closing
- 06Methodology
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