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Back of Napkin

Olin Corporation OLN

Three-pass checkedFiled since 2026-07-31

Written 2026-05-19. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-07-31, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.

Olin is the largest US producer of chlor-alkali (chlorine plus caustic soda plus EDC/PVC value chain) plus epoxy resins and Winchester branded ammunition, running the integrated salt-to-PVC chemistry with the energy advantage of its Gulf Coast production base.

The setup is a textbook cycle bottom with a Q2 inflection, where Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $86M is set to step up to $160-200M in Q2 on $185/ton caustic price increases plus epoxy turning profitable plus Winchester recovering; the equity is a chlor-alkali-cycle call with secondary optionality on US PVC housing demand and global defense ammunition restocking.

Key data

Sector / industryBasic Materials / Chemicals, Specialty
FYE / countryDecember / US
Price / 52w range$25.96 / $18.08 to $30.46
Position vs MA44% above 52w low; 50d SMA $27.31, 200d SMA $23.73, recent 50-over-200 cross
Market cap / EV≈$3.0B / ≈$6.4B
Revenue (TTM)≈$6.7B
EPS (TTM, GAAP)≈$1.10 loss
Net income (TTM, GAAP)≈$0.13B loss
Beta1.21

OLN · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$14$26$38$50$62 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Olin is the largest US producer of chlor-alkali, the chlorine plus caustic soda plus EDC/PVC value chain, plus epoxy resins and Winchester branded ammunition, running an integrated salt-to-PVC chemistry with the energy advantage of its Gulf Coast production base. The company reports three segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls, Epoxy, and Winchester.

Q1 2026, reported May 7, posted a net loss of $83M, or $0.73 per diluted share, with adjusted EBITDA of $86M, well below FY25's $620M annualized run rate. Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls had sales of $757M (down from $924M in Q1 2025) and a $44.5M segment loss (versus a $78M profit prior year) on lower volumes, partly the Blue Water Alliance trading book, lower pricing, higher natural gas and electricity costs, and a planned maintenance turnaround. Epoxy turned profitable after restructuring, with Q2 expected meaningfully stronger on European cost reductions plus targeted price increases. Winchester had sales of $470.5M and segment earnings of $15.2M, down on a raw-material cost spike in copper, brass, and propellants, with mid-to-high-single-digit volume growth expected through 2026. The real catalyst is the Q2 guide: management projected Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $160-200M versus $86M in Q1, a near-doubling, driven by $185/ton caustic price increases for 2026 implementation, epoxy momentum, and Winchester commercial ammo recovery, with EDC and caustic shortages persisting and pricing power real.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

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