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Back of Napkin

NextEra Energy, Inc. NEE

Three-pass checkedFresh as companies report

NextEra reported net income of $3.14B last quarter, up 55%, and $424M of that was a mark on interest rate contracts.

It is also in the middle of acquiring Dominion Energy, while already spending roughly twice its operating cash flow every year.

NEE · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$47$60$74$87$101 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Two companies inside one holding structure. Florida Power and Light is a regulated monopoly serving more than twelve million people, earning an allowed return of about 11.70% on a rate base that grew roughly $6.8B in the last year. That half is dull and predictable, which is the point.

NextEra Energy Resources is the largest renewable developer in the world. It builds wind, solar and battery projects, signs twenty-year contracts with utilities and, increasingly, with the companies building data centres, and it is now recommissioning a nuclear plant in Iowa under a power purchase agreement with Google. The backlog reached 35.1 gigawatts. That half is a construction business financed in the capital markets, and it is what an owner is actually buying.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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