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Enphase Energy, Inc. ENPH

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The bet you're really making is that American homeowners keep putting solar panels and batteries on their roofs, and keep choosing Enphase's little inverters, one bolted under each panel, to run them. You're betting they keep buying even now that Washington has killed the tax credit that used to pay back a chunk of the cost. Right now it is going badly: sales fell to $283 million early in 2026, down 21% in a year, the company slipped to a small loss, and the most recent quarter's 46 cents of adjusted profit missed the 47-cent forecast. You pay 36 times trailing twelve months' earnings, and about 13 times what analysts expect for 2028, toward the low end of what this stock has cost in the years it made a profit.

Key data

Price$36.37
52-week range$25.78 – $73.74
P/E, trailing / FY2028e36x / 13x
EV/EBITDA, TTM27x

ENPH · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$15$58$101$144$187 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jul '25Feb '26Sep '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Enphase sells microinverters, one small box mounted under each solar panel that turns the panel's DC into household AC, plus IQ home batteries and the app that watches the whole system. It sells through solar installers, not to homeowners directly, and the great majority of revenue is US residential rooftop, with Europe a distant second. The moat is real but narrow: installers trained on Enphase gear, a fleet of millions of monitored systems, and US factories that qualify Enphase for federal manufacturing credits rivals importing hardware cannot easily match. What it is not is a utility or a producer of anything scarce; demand rises and falls with electricity prices, interest rates, and whatever the tax code says this year about putting panels on a roof.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05Closing thoughts
  6. 06Methodology

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