TGBack of Napkin
Target Corporation TGT
Target's comparable sales went from -3.8% to +5.6% in a year, traffic turned positive, and the stock doubled from $83.44 to $169.90.
Then last quarter's operating income of $2.56B arrived with $994M of tariff refunds sitting inside cost of sales, which is 39% of it.
TGT · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Target sells apparel, home goods, groceries, beauty and seasonal merchandise out of more than 2,000 stores, with roughly a fifth of sales originating digitally and fulfilled mostly from those same stores. The differentiator has always been owned brands and a shopping experience people choose rather than tolerate, which is why the company earns higher gross margins than a pure discounter and why it suffers more when discretionary spending turns.
Two newer businesses matter increasingly: Roundel, the advertising network that sells access to Target's shoppers, and Target Circle 360, the paid membership. Together with the marketplace they grew over 20% last quarter, though the company will not break out the pieces.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04How it fails or surprises you
- 05The shape of the payoff
- 06Closing thoughts
- 07Methodology
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