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Back of Napkin

Target Corporation TGT

Three-pass checkedFresh as companies report

Target's comparable sales went from -3.8% to +5.6% in a year, traffic turned positive, and the stock doubled from $83.44 to $169.90.

Then last quarter's operating income of $2.56B arrived with $994M of tariff refunds sitting inside cost of sales, which is 39% of it.

TGT · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$78$105$131$158$185 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Target sells apparel, home goods, groceries, beauty and seasonal merchandise out of more than 2,000 stores, with roughly a fifth of sales originating digitally and fulfilled mostly from those same stores. The differentiator has always been owned brands and a shopping experience people choose rather than tolerate, which is why the company earns higher gross margins than a pure discounter and why it suffers more when discretionary spending turns.

Two newer businesses matter increasingly: Roundel, the advertising network that sells access to Target's shoppers, and Target Circle 360, the paid membership. Together with the marketplace they grew over 20% last quarter, though the company will not break out the pieces.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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