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Back of Napkin

Lam Research Corporation LRCX

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Deferred revenue fell over the same year, from $2.68B to $2.43B, because customers put down less money in advance.

LRCX · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$31$127$223$319$416 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Lam makes three of the machines that turn a silicon wafer into a chip. Deposition lays material down atom by atom. Etch takes it away with a precision measured in single layers. Clean removes what neither step wanted. A modern memory chip stacks hundreds of these operations, and Lam's tools do a large share of them.

The moat is that a fab qualifies a specific tool for a specific process step and then does not change it, because requalifying costs months of production. Lam is unusually exposed to memory, which is the most violent part of an already cyclical industry, and that exposure is currently the reason the numbers look like this.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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