FABack of Napkin
Fastenal Company FAST
Written 2026-06-16. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-07-16, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.
Fastenal sits at ≈41x trailing earnings for a 5-6% organic growth distributor whose entire structural moat lives in on-site vending machines bolted to factory floors.
You're paying a 40x multiple for a 15% net margin industrial-supply business, and the asymmetry is whether Onsite + FMI 2.0 keeps compounding tonnage growth at 2-3x the broader MRO market or whether manufacturing weakness pulls the whole thing back to a 25x multiple.
Key data
FAST · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Fastenal is the largest industrial-distribution platform in North America, selling the boring stuff that keeps factories and construction sites running: threaded fasteners (the original product, now about 30% of mix), plus cutting tools, safety equipment, janitorial supplies, electrical, hydraulics, and MRO consumables. The customer base is roughly 70% manufacturing (heavy and light), 10% non-residential construction, and the rest split across government, transportation, mining, and agriculture. The engine is the Onsite + FMI program: ≈2,200 staffed in-customer locations where Fastenal personnel sit inside the customer's plant, plus ≈130,000+ FMI vending and bin-stock devices that auto-replenish. Onsite + FMI customers now drive ≈65% of revenue and are growing low double digits while the legacy branch channel shrinks; this is the slice doing the work, growing 3-4x the rate of the rest of the book at structurally higher gross margins because the switching cost (ripping out vending infrastructure embedded in a customer's production line) is real.
What the financials don't show is the cyclical position. The PMI has been hovering at or below 50 for most of 2024-2025; Fastenal's daily sales growth ran +3% to +5% organic through most of FY25 with December 2025 accelerating to +7%, which the company attributes to easier comps plus early signs of manufacturing restock. Heavy manufacturing (≈42% of sales) is the swing factor. Daily sales per business day is the leading indicator to watch, and management calls out signed Onsite contracts as the forward-bookings proxy: FY25 signed ≈400 net new Onsites against a stated 375-400 target, with the FY26 target raised to 425-450. That signing pace is the asymmetry's tell.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04The linchpins
- 05Closing
- 06Methodology
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