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Back of Napkin

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD

Three-pass checkedFresh as companies report

AMD's data centre revenue doubled to $6.72B in a year and that segment's operating income went from a $155M loss to a $2.10B profit.

Consensus has revenue rising from $50.95B this year to $88.82B next, a 74% increase, which is the entire valuation.

AMD · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$48$185$322$459$596 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

AMD designs processors and does not make them. EPYC server chips compete with Intel for the general computing inside data centres. Instinct accelerators compete with NVIDIA for the artificial-intelligence work. A separate business sells the processors and graphics chips inside personal computers and games consoles, and a third sells into industrial and automotive markets, mostly the former Xilinx programmable chips.

Data centre is now 58% of revenue and effectively all of the growth.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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