ONBack of Napkin
Ondas Holdings Inc. ONDS
Written 2026-05-26. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-08-13, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.
You are paying a $4.9B market cap for a defense-robotics roll-up that did $50.7M of revenue in all of FY2025 and another $50.1M in Q1 2026 alone, sits on roughly $652M of cash and investments, and is guided to about $394M of FY2026 revenue, roughly 8x the prior year.
The asymmetry is whether the counter-UAS, drone, and AI-orchestration stack assembled through equity-funded acquisitions converts a signed backlog into real recurring revenue before the share count, now 514M and climbing, dilutes the upside away.
Key data
ONDS · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Ondas Holdings runs two segments. Ondas Networks is the legacy private-wireless business selling the FullMAX software-defined radio platform into rail, energy, and critical-infrastructure customers. Ondas Autonomous Systems is the defense-robotics franchise built by acquisition: the Optimus airborne security drone, the Iron Drone counter-UAS interceptor, and the ScoutBase ground autonomous platform, with an in-progress Israeli AI orchestration layer meant to tie sensors, drones, and ground assets into one battlefield-management system. The engine doing essentially all of the work today is Ondas Autonomous Systems; counter-UAS and Optimus drove the revenue step from $7.2M in FY2024 to $50.7M in FY2025, with management citing counter-UAS as the largest near-term demand driver. A clean segment revenue split is not disclosed in the data available, so the concentration is named by direction, not a precise percentage.
The qualitative fact the financials understate is that this is an equity-funded growth machine, and the funding has accelerated hard. Shares outstanding went from 69.9M at year-end 2024 to a 221.8M weighted average across FY2025, and the latest 10-Q shows 514.5M shares outstanding, with a Q1 2026 diluted count of 461.7M. That issuance raised about $862M of stock proceeds in FY2025 and funded $207M of acquisitions plus the cash and investment portfolio. The Q1 2026 net income of $363M is not earnings; it is dominated by non-operating gains on securities held in that portfolio. The recurring operational read is the $50.1M of revenue and the negative $42.7M of operating income, not the headline EPS.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04The linchpins
- 05Closing
- 06Methodology
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