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Back of Napkin

Ondas Holdings Inc. ONDS

Three-pass checkedFiled since 2026-08-13

Written 2026-05-26. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-08-13, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.

You are paying a $4.9B market cap for a defense-robotics roll-up that did $50.7M of revenue in all of FY2025 and another $50.1M in Q1 2026 alone, sits on roughly $652M of cash and investments, and is guided to about $394M of FY2026 revenue, roughly 8x the prior year.

The asymmetry is whether the counter-UAS, drone, and AI-orchestration stack assembled through equity-funded acquisitions converts a signed backlog into real recurring revenue before the share count, now 514M and climbing, dilutes the upside away.

Key data

Sector / industryTechnology / Communication Equipment, defense robotics
Price (6/15/26) / 52w range$9.51 / $1.36 to $15.28
Market cap / EV$4.89B / ≈$4.24B (operating business ex cash + investments)
Cash + investments≈$652M (cash $594M, ST inv $22M, LT inv $36M)
FY25 revenue / EPS$50.7M / -$0.62
Q1 2026 revenue / diluted EPS$50.1M / $0.56 (EPS driven by non-operating gains)
FY26E revenue / EPS$394M (≈7.8x FY25) / $0.44
EV / FY26E sales≈10.8x
Shares outstanding514.5M (vs 69.9M Dec 2024)
Beta / dividend2.62 / none

ONDS · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$-1$3$7$11$15 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Ondas Holdings runs two segments. Ondas Networks is the legacy private-wireless business selling the FullMAX software-defined radio platform into rail, energy, and critical-infrastructure customers. Ondas Autonomous Systems is the defense-robotics franchise built by acquisition: the Optimus airborne security drone, the Iron Drone counter-UAS interceptor, and the ScoutBase ground autonomous platform, with an in-progress Israeli AI orchestration layer meant to tie sensors, drones, and ground assets into one battlefield-management system. The engine doing essentially all of the work today is Ondas Autonomous Systems; counter-UAS and Optimus drove the revenue step from $7.2M in FY2024 to $50.7M in FY2025, with management citing counter-UAS as the largest near-term demand driver. A clean segment revenue split is not disclosed in the data available, so the concentration is named by direction, not a precise percentage.

The qualitative fact the financials understate is that this is an equity-funded growth machine, and the funding has accelerated hard. Shares outstanding went from 69.9M at year-end 2024 to a 221.8M weighted average across FY2025, and the latest 10-Q shows 514.5M shares outstanding, with a Q1 2026 diluted count of 461.7M. That issuance raised about $862M of stock proceeds in FY2025 and funded $207M of acquisitions plus the cash and investment portfolio. The Q1 2026 net income of $363M is not earnings; it is dominated by non-operating gains on securities held in that portfolio. The recurring operational read is the $50.1M of revenue and the negative $42.7M of operating income, not the headline EPS.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

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