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Back of Napkin

Western Digital Corporation WDC

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Western Digital's gross margin went from 28.1% to 48.9% in two years, on hard disk drives, a product everyone assumed was dying.

Its reported earnings are mostly not from that. Of the year's profit, $6.5B came from marking up a stake in the flash business it spun off.

WDC · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$-28$180$388$596$804 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Western Digital now makes one thing: hard disk drives, the spinning magnetic platters that store data cheaply. After separating the Sandisk flash business in February 2025, 89% of revenue comes from high-capacity drives sold to cloud operators, with 6% client and 5% consumer.

The reason this matters is that artificial-intelligence data centres need somewhere to keep enormous quantities of data that is accessed rarely. Flash is faster and far more expensive per terabyte. For cold storage at scale, spinning disks remain the only economic answer, and only three companies make them.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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