ENBack of Napkin
Enova International, Inc. ENVA
Written 2026-06-29. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-07-23, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.
Enova is an online non-prime lender that just printed its cleanest credit year of the cycle, with the consolidated net charge-off ratio falling to 7.6% in Q1 2026 from 8.6% a year earlier while the book grew 23% to a record $5.3 billion.
You are paying 14x forward earnings for a 25% ROE machine compounding at 30%+, and getting an unpriced option on the cycle staying benign; the catch is that those earnings sit on charge-offs near the low end of the consumer-credit cycle, so the real question is what the multiple looks like when losses normalize back up.
Key data
ENVA · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Enova lends online to consumers and small businesses that banks decline. The consumer side is short-duration installment loans and lines of credit (brands CashNetUSA, NetCredit) to near-prime and subprime borrowers; the small-business side, OnDeck, writes term loans and lines to Main Street firms too small or too thin-file for a bank. Revenue is the interest and fees on a $5.5 billion combined loan book. The engine is now the small-business segment: OnDeck-led SMB receivables carry the lower loss rate (Q1 2026 small-business net charge-offs of 4.6% versus consumer at 14.3%) and have driven most of the originations growth, so roughly half the book now sits in the lower-loss, higher-quality SMB pool that the market increasingly underwrites as the durable part of the franchise.
The borrower is the load-bearing fact the income statement hides. Consumer customers are largely subprime to near-prime, often sub-650 FICO, borrowing small-dollar amounts (hundreds to low thousands) over months, not years; the SMB borrower is a small firm taking $5,000 to $250,000 over 6 to 24 months. Enova does not carry a traditional CECL allowance line because it elects fair-value accounting on the loan portfolio: the cushion shows up as a fair value premium of 115.3% of principal, meaning the carried value already discounts expected losses and a margin on top. What changed in the last few quarters is that loss rates fell while originations accelerated 32% year over year, a rare combination, and it is exactly that combination, falling losses plus rising volume, that has roughly doubled the stock off its 52-week low.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04The linchpins
- 05Closing
- 06Methodology
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