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Back of Napkin

Sezzle Inc. SEZL

Three-pass checkedFiled since 2026-08-07

Written 2026-06-29. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-08-07, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.

Sezzle is a profitable buy-now-pay-later lender compounding gross merchandise volume more than 50% a year while its loss rate falls, and the market has rewarded it with a roughly 3.4x move off the 52-week low to a 33x forward multiple.

The asymmetry is a rare BNPL that actually earns money and is widening its take rate, but at this multiple the price already assumes years of continued GMV acceleration and a loss rate that stays benign, so the bet is really on whether hypergrowth and a 1.2% loss rate both hold if the consumer weakens.

Key data

ItemValue
Sector / modelBuy-now-pay-later consumer lender / short-duration installment receivables
FYE / countryDec 31 / United States
Price / 52w range$170.56 / $49.50 to $186.74
Market cap≈$5.74B
FY25 revenue / net income$450.3M / $133M
FY25 diluted EPS$3.72
Forward P/E (FY26E ≈$5.11)≈33x
FY25 GMV / growth$3.94B / +55%
Take rate (Q1 2026)12.2% of GMV
Provision (Q1 2026)1.2% of GMV

SEZL · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$-13$40$92$145$198 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Sezzle lets shoppers split a purchase into interest-free installments, most commonly four payments over six weeks, and increasingly a pay-in-five product. It makes money three ways: a merchant fee on each transaction, consumer fees (including the high-margin standardized pricing on its core product), and a paid subscription, Sezzle Premium, plus on-demand passes that let consumers use the service at merchants that have not signed up. The receivables are very short-duration, so the credit risk turns over in weeks rather than years. The engine doing most of the work is transaction monetization on rising volume: FY25 revenue of $450.3M was up 66% on GMV of $3.94B that grew 55%, meaning revenue grew faster than volume because the take rate expanded. That take-rate expansion, from roughly 11.4% for FY25 to 12.2% in Q1 2026, is the real story, and it came from mix shift toward higher-margin consumer fees and subscription rather than from raising merchant rates.

The fact the headline numbers hide is that this is consumer credit with a very fast clock. Because receivables roll over in weeks, the loss rate, reported as provision for uncollectible accounts as a % of GMV, is the single most important risk metric, and it reacts quickly to consumer stress. That cuts both ways: it improved to 1.2% of GMV in Q1 2026 from 1.6% a year earlier on strong repayment, but it can deteriorate just as fast if the consumer rolls over. The other change worth noting is the subscriber pivot: monthly on-demand and subscribers (MODS) reached 887,000 at Q1 2026, up about 35% year-over-year, and the shift toward subscription and consumer-fee revenue is what is driving operating margins toward the mid-70s and the take rate higher.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

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