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Back of Napkin

The AES Corporation AES

Three-pass checkedFiled since 2026-08-04

Written 2026-05-19. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-08-04, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.

AES is a global power producer running 32+ gigawatts of generation across the US, Latin America, and Asia, transformed during the 2020s into one of the largest pure-play renewables developers in the US with a record $41B construction backlog feeding into hyperscaler data center power contracts.

The setup is no longer the levered-cyclical-recovery trade it looked like a year ago: a BlackRock-GIP / EQT / CalPERS / QIA consortium announced a $15.00 cash take-private on March 2, 2026 ($33.4B enterprise value), the equity now sits at $14.57 as a 3% deal-spread arb with late 2026 / early 2027 expected close, and the fundamental thesis has been pre-monetized.

Key data

Sector / industryUtilities / Independent Power Producers
FYE / countryDecember / US
Price / 52w range$14.57 / $9.46 to $17.65
Position vs MA50d SMA $14.31, 200d SMA $14.18; range-bound near deal price
Market cap / EV≈$10.4B / ≈$39.5B
Revenue (TTM)≈$12.5B
EPS (TTM, GAAP)≈$1.88
Beta0.96

AES · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$9$12$16$19$23 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

AES is a global power producer running 32+ gigawatts of generation across the US, Latin America, and Asia, transformed during the 2020s into one of the largest pure-play renewables developers in the US. The strategic asset is a $41B renewables construction backlog at year-end 2025, most of it contracted to hyperscalers under long-term PPAs at AI-data-center-driven rates. That backlog is what Global Infrastructure Partners and EQT bought.

Two material events define the period. On March 2, 2026 a consortium led by Global Infrastructure Partners (a BlackRock subsidiary) and EQT Infrastructure VI, with co-investors CalPERS and Qatar Investment Authority, agreed to acquire AES for $15.00 per share in cash. Total equity value $10.7B; enterprise value $33.4B including assumed debt. The deal price represents a ≈40% premium to the pre-rumor share price (≈$10.70 range in February 2026). Closing is expected late 2026 or early 2027, subject to a shareholder vote plus federal, state, and foreign regulatory approvals. Then on May 5, 2026 Q1 2026 earnings landed: adjusted EPS $0.67 beat consensus $0.50, revenue $3.18B. The quarter validated the underlying earnings power that motivated the take-private bid, on data center demand growth, renewables backlog conversion, and stabilizing fossil legacy units. AES did not pre-release a new full-year guide given the pending transaction.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

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