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Back of Napkin

NatWest Group plc NWG

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NatWest posted a 19.7% return on tangible equity in H1 2026, lifted its full-year guidance, pulled its buyback decision forward six months, and now sits at its 52-week high on about 2.0x tangible book after a re-rate that has nearly tripled the multiple off its decade median.

You are paying roughly 10.6x trailing earnings and 2.0x tangible book for a bank compounding tangible book through a heavy capital return; the discount is gone, and the live question is whether a near-20% return is a durable base or a rate-cycle peak that normalizes as the Bank of England eases.

Key data

Sector / industryFinancial Services / Banks, UK diversified
FYE / countryDecember / United Kingdom (Edinburgh)
Price · 52w range (LSE)722.8p · 500p to 725p
Market cap~£57.5B (≈$77B)
Price / tangible book≈2.0x (TNAV 359p/sh)
Trailing P/E≈10.6x (FY2025 EPS 68.0p)
RoTE (H1 2026)19.7%
CET1 ratio13.2%
Dividend yield≈4.5%, plus buyback

NWG · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$3$8$12$16$20 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

NatWest Group, the former Royal Bank of Scotland, is one of the UK's big-four banks: retail banking (current accounts, mortgages, savings, personal loans), commercial and institutional banking, private banking and wealth, and RBS International. The engine is net interest income, the spread between what it earns on loans and pays on deposits, which was about 79% of H1 income (£6.9B of £8.7B, both excluding notable items). That spread is earned on a £410B customer-loan book that is roughly half UK residential mortgages, funded by £448B of low-cost deposits at a 90% loan-to-deposit ratio. This is a domestic UK lender first, a wealth and markets business second.

Two things changed the picture in the last few quarters. First, the UK Treasury completed its exit in 2025, ending fifteen years of state ownership that began with the 2008 rescue, so management now runs purely for shareholder returns with no overhang on the multiple. Second, a structural hedge on the deposit book, a rolling portfolio of swaps that reinvests non-interest-bearing balances at prevailing rates, keeps repricing older low-yield positions into higher ones as they mature, cushioning net interest income even as the Bank of England cuts. In H1 2026 the bank also closed the Evelyn Partners wealth acquisition, which cost about 37p of tangible net asset value per share and roughly 80 basis points of capital, and raised full-year guidance on the back of the print.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

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