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Back of Napkin

Triumph Financial, Inc. TFIN

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Triumph's average freight invoice went from $1,663 to $2,160 in four quarters while quarterly earnings per share went from $0.15 to $0.44, and the payments network everyone argues about did not cause that.

What you are underwriting at $69.59 is whether $2,160 is the new floor or the top of a cycle, because management's own arithmetic prices every $100 of invoice size at $7.0M of pretax income a year.

Key data

Sector / industryFinancials / freight factoring and payments
FYE / countryDec / US
Price · 52w range$69.59 · $46.43 to $83.52
Market cap$1.7B
Filing anchorQ2-FY2026 (CQ2 CY2026), filed Jul 21, 2026
Price / tangible book3.23x on the Q2 book · 3.31x on the Q1 book the screen used
Consensus EPSFY26E $1.97 · FY27E $3.16
Asset qualityNPLs 1.65% of loans · reserve cover 38.4% of NPLs

TFIN · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$42$60$77$94$112 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Sep '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

A trucker hauls a load, then waits a month to get paid. Triumph buys that invoice at a 1.29% discount, wires the cash the same day, and collects from the broker. That is the company in one sentence, and 43% of revenue.

Bolted to it: TriumphPay, which pays carriers for roughly 400 brokers and bills per invoice; Intelligence, the freight pricing data bought with Greenscreens in 2025; and a Texas charter gathering the deposits that fund the factoring book. The moat is invoice count, since nobody audits and pays more brokered freight invoices.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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