MCBack of Napkin
Moody's Corporation MCO
Moody's ratings revenue grew 25% last quarter and its analytics revenue grew 4%.
The cyclical half is now 71% of the ratings business, up from 66% a year ago, which means the company is getting more cyclical while it is being priced as though it were getting less.
MCO · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Two halves that get talked about as one. Moody's Investors Service assigns credit ratings and gets paid a fee, usually basis points on the deal size, when a bond is issued. Moody's Analytics sells subscriptions: research, economic models, know-your-customer screening, insurance and banking risk software.
The ratings half has one of the best competitive positions in any industry, because a company issuing debt needs two ratings and there are effectively two firms that count. It is also entirely dependent on issuance volume, which is the credit cycle. The analytics half is the recurring revenue that was supposed to smooth that out.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04How it fails or surprises you
- 05The shape of the payoff
- 06Closing thoughts
- 07Methodology
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