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Back of Napkin

Paychex, Inc. PAYX

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Paychex grew revenue 17% last year and roughly half of it was an acquisition whose anniversary has just passed.

The most recent quarter grew 12.5%, of which about eight points was still the acquisition, which leaves something closer to four.

PAYX · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$80$101$123$144$166 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Paychex runs payroll for roughly 800,000 mostly small American businesses: the restaurant with nine employees, the dental practice, the regional contractor. It calculates the withholding, files the returns, and moves the money. Around that sits the more interesting half: acting as co-employer through the professional employer organisation, selling health insurance into the same base, and administering 130,000 retirement plans holding $66.0B of participant assets.

There is a quiet third business nobody markets. Paychex holds client payroll funds between the debit and the payment date and keeps the interest. That produced $210.9M last year, up 30%, and it is entirely a function of short-term rates rather than of anything Paychex does.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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