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Back of Napkin

CME Group Inc. CME

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CME's contract volume fell 1% last quarter and the fee it earns on each contract fell from 69.0 cents to 67.8.

Revenue still grew, because the part of the business that has nothing to do with volume grew 16%.

CME · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$181$218$256$293$330 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

CME runs the futures markets. A bank hedging interest rate exposure, a fund positioning in the S&P 500, a refiner locking in crude, a farmer selling next year's corn: all of it clears through CME, which charges a fee per contract and holds the collateral. Owning the clearing house is the moat, because open positions cannot be moved to a competitor without closing them first, and nobody closes a book to save a fee.

Underneath sits a second business almost nobody discusses. CME sells market data to everyone who needs its prices, which is everyone. That revenue has no relationship to how many contracts are cleared.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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